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Stalemate at FC Sion's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Sion and Lausanne finished level at 0-0 at Stade de Tourbillon, Regular Season - 7, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Sion 1.53 xG and Lausanne 1.17 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. FC Sion fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Lausanne landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Sion attack 0.85 / defence 0.94 against Lausanne attack 0.86 / defence 1.06, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Sion 44% | Draw 28% | Lausanne 27%, with FC Sion to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Sion 48%, Lausanne 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Sion's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Lausanne's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC Sion 1.23 PPG, Lausanne 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FC Sion (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.52 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line. Lausanne (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights