FC Sion 0-0 Lausanne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours FC Sion (44%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as FC Sion face Lausanne.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Lausanne make the trip to Stade de Tourbillon to face FC Sion in Super League, Regular Season - 7. The match kicks off on Sunday 28 September 2025 at 15:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
FC Sion have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W D L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. FC Sion have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Sion's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Stade de Tourbillon this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Lausanne (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 Super League outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L L L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Lausanne have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Super League this season, Lausanne have posted 1W 5D 4L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward FC Sion. A 0.80 PPG lead over Lausanne (1.50 vs 0.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — FC Sion register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Lausanne in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — FC Sion lead 4W to 2W over the last 7 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Apr 2025, ended 0–2 with Lausanne winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
FC Sion — key trading statistics (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Lausanne — key trading statistics (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Sion 59% and Lausanne 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Sion 48% | Lausanne 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Sion 1.53 xG and Lausanne 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Sion attack 0.847 / defence 0.939 | Lausanne attack 0.859 / defence 1.056. League average goals — home 1.711 / away 1.443. Data: 39 FC Sion games / 39 Lausanne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Sion 44% | Draw 28% | Lausanne 27%. Fair-value odds: FC Sion 2.27 | Draw 3.57 | Lausanne 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates FC Sion as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Sion if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.70 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: FC Sion 70% | Lausanne 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Sion vs Lausanne | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stade de Tourbillon • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Sep 2025, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Sion 44% | Draw 28% | Lausanne 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG FC Sion 1.53 / Lausanne 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: FC Sion attack 0.847 / def 0.939 | Lausanne attack 0.859 / def 1.056 | league avg home 1.711 / away 1.443 • Poisson stance: FC Sion (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
FC Sion xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Lausanne xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Sion vs Lausanne kick off?
FC Sion vs Lausanne kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 28 September 2025 at Stade de Tourbillon.
What was the final score in FC Sion vs Lausanne?
FC Sion 0 - 0 Lausanne.
Where is FC Sion vs Lausanne being played?
The match is being played at Stade de Tourbillon.
What competition is FC Sion vs Lausanne part of?
FC Sion vs Lausanne is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC Sion vs Lausanne?
Our statistical model gives FC Sion a 44% chance of winning, Lausanne a 27% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making FC Sion the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Sion vs Lausanne?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both FC Sion and Lausanne will score (BTTS).
Will FC Sion vs Lausanne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Sion and Lausanne?
Record (7 meetings): FC Sion 4W | Draws 1 | Lausanne 2W.
What form are FC Sion and Lausanne in?
FC Sion (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-W-L. Lausanne (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates FC Sion's attack at 0.85x the league average against Lausanne's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.53 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Lausanne's attack (0.86x) against FC Sion's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Sion Win
44%
2.27
28%
3.51
27%
3.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
FC Sion xG
Total xG
2.70
1.17
Lausanne xG
2.27
44%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
3.65
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.80
45%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
31%
3.21
22%
4.62
Win to Nil
14%
7.26
6%
16.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 7.9 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.0 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.2 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Sion vs Lausanne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are FC Sion and Lausanne expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for FC Sion and 1.17 for Lausanne, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Sion vs Lausanne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
FC Sion come into this having played 44 games, going 14W 12D 18L for 1.23 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for FC Sion, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Lausanne sit at 1.30 PPG from 44 outings (15W 12D 17L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Lausanne, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.23 PPG for FC Sion against 1.30 for Lausanne. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
FC Sion's home form reads 8W 8D 5L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.52 PPG return.
Away from home, Lausanne have taken 0.86 points per game from 21 outings (3W 9D 9L). That's a step down from their 1.30 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Lausanne's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Sion come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
FC Sion are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Lausanne are on 1.59 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lausanne in 61%.
Last 44 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Sion
Early Season
Lausanne
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Sion and Lausanne in coming into this match?
FC Sion have gone 14W 12D 18L in their last 44 games (1.23 PPG), while Lausanne have gone 15W 12D 17L in their last 44 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Sion at home or Lausanne away?
FC Sion's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Sion at home: 1.52 PPG; Lausanne away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Sion won 4-0 on 27 Jul 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Sion have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Lausanne — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
FC Sion
3
Draws
2
Lausanne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Sion and Lausanne?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Sion have won 5, Lausanne have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FC Sion and Lausanne last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when FC Sion 3-0 Lausanne.
Who has won more matches between FC Sion and Lausanne?
FC Sion have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC Sion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Lausanne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 24% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Sion 67%, Lausanne 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (FC Sion) and 52% (Lausanne).
On the defensive side: Lausanne in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Sion home games / Lausanne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Sion play Lausanne?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of FC Sion's games and 62% of Lausanne's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Sion vs Lausanne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of FC Sion's recent games and 52% of Lausanne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Sion and Lausanne tend to score early?
FC Sion have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Lausanne in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at FC Sion's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Sion and Lausanne finished level at 0-0 at Stade de Tourbillon, Regular Season - 7, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Sion 1.53 xG and Lausanne 1.17 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. FC Sion fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Lausanne landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Sion attack 0.85 / defence 0.94 against Lausanne attack 0.86 / defence 1.06, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Sion 44% | Draw 28% | Lausanne 27%, with FC Sion to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Sion 48%, Lausanne 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Sion's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Lausanne's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Sion 1.23 PPG, Lausanne 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FC Sion (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.52 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line. Lausanne (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.