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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as FC Thun edge out FC Sion 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Thun beat FC Sion 0-1 at Stade de Tourbillon, Regular Season - 10, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Sion 1.31 xG and FC Thun 1.48 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. FC Sion fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Sion attack 0.74 / defence 0.83 against FC Thun attack 1.24 / defence 1.02, drawn from 42/9 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Sion 33% | Draw 25% | FC Thun 41%, with FC Thun to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Sion 44%, FC Thun 89%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Sion's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.

FC Thun's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 89% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, FC Thun arrived the stronger side — 2.11 PPG against 1.67. The form guide was vindicated by the result. FC Sion (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. FC Thun (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights