🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates FC Thun at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Sion vs FC Thun encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

FC Sion and FC Thun meet at Stade de Tourbillon in Super League, Regular Season - 10. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 25 October 2025 at 17:00 UTC.

Form

FC Sion (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L D D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for FC Sion, so this record blends games from this season and last.

FC Sion's home record at Stade de Tourbillon: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Super League appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

FC Thun have collected 2.11 PPG across 9 Super League outings this season: 6W 1D 2L. Last five: D L L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.11 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 89% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for FC Thun, so this record blends games from this season and last.

FC Thun away from home this season: 4W 0D 1L from 5 away games — 2.40 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

FC Thun arrive in superior form — a 0.61 PPG advantage (2.11 vs 1.50) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — FC Sion have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, FC Thun in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

Trading

FC Sion half-time and goal-timing data (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 44% of games.

FC Thun half-time and goal-timing data (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Sion 33% and FC Thun 89% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC Sion 44% | FC Thun 89%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects FC Sion 1.31 xG and FC Thun 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Sion attack 0.743 / defence 0.831 | FC Thun attack 1.241 / defence 1.017. League average goals — home 1.734 / away 1.438. FC Sion's attack strength of 0.743 is below the league average — the 1.31 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. FC Thun have an above-average attack strength of 1.241 — the away xG of 1.48 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 42 FC Sion games / 9 FC Thun games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: FC Sion 33% | Draw 25% | FC Thun 41%. Fair-value odds: FC Sion 3.03 | Draw 4.00 | FC Thun 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Thun at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Thun if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.79 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Sion 60% | FC Thun 80% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights