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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as FC Sion defy the odds to beat FC ST. Gallen 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Sion beat FC ST. Gallen 3-2 at Stade de Tourbillon, Regular Season - 11, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Sion 0.99 xG and FC ST. Gallen 1.26 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. FC Sion beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Sion attack 0.62 / defence 0.81 against FC ST. Gallen attack 1.11 / defence 0.86, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Sion 29% | Draw 28% | FC ST. Gallen 43%, with FC ST. Gallen to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual FC Sion win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Sion 46%, FC ST. Gallen 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Sion's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

FC ST. Gallen's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC Sion 1.23 PPG, FC ST. Gallen 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Sion win broke the near-deadlock. FC Sion (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC ST. Gallen (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights