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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Poisson model favours FC ST. Gallen (43%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as FC Sion face FC ST. Gallen.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 11 as FC Sion welcome FC ST. Gallen to Stade de Tourbillon. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 28 October 2025 at 19:30 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Super League games this season, FC Sion have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L D D W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for FC Sion, so this record blends games from this season and last.

FC Sion's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Stade de Tourbillon this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.

Looking at all fixtures this season, FC ST. Gallen stand at 7W 0D 3L from 10 Super League matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC ST. Gallen, so this record blends games from this season and last.

FC ST. Gallen away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Form points away from home here. FC ST. Gallen's 2.10 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of FC Sion's 1.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

H2H

Despite the anticipated home advantage, FC ST. Gallen have the better historical record — 3 wins from 6 previous contests against 0 for FC Sion.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 2.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 13 May 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. FC ST. Gallen have won 3 of 6 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

In-Play Profile

FC Sion in-play tendencies (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

FC ST. Gallen in-play tendencies (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Sion 56% versus FC ST. Gallen 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Sion 46% | FC ST. Gallen 52%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects FC Sion 0.99 xG and FC ST. Gallen 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Sion attack 0.619 / defence 0.807 | FC ST. Gallen attack 1.113 / defence 0.865. League average goals — home 1.846 / away 1.406. FC Sion's attack strength of 0.619 is below the league average — the 0.99 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 43 FC Sion games / 43 FC ST. Gallen games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: FC Sion 29% | Draw 28% | FC ST. Gallen 43%. Fair-value odds: FC Sion 3.45 | Draw 3.57 | FC ST. Gallen 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates FC ST. Gallen as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC ST. Gallen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.25 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: FC Sion 50% | FC ST. Gallen 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.

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