FC Sion 0-0 FC Luzern – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Sion at 44% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Sion vs FC Luzern encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FC Sion and FC Luzern meet at Stade de Tourbillon in Super League (matchday 23). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 7 February 2026 at 17:00 UK time.
Current Form
FC Sion's record over their last 10 games: 3W 6D 1L (1.50 PPG). Last five: L W D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
FC Sion's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
FC Luzern (all games): 1W 3D 6L across their last 10 — 0.60 points per game. Last five: L W L D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.40. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
FC Luzern's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 exceeds their overall 0.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The points-per-game gap of 0.90 in FC Sion's favour (1.50 vs 0.60) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 7 H2H matches in our data, FC Luzern edge it 3 wins to 2, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.4 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 24 Jan 2026, ended FC Sion 1–1 FC Luzern — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.4 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
FC Sion goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
FC Luzern goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Sion 60% and FC Luzern 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Sion 47% | FC Luzern 70%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: FC Sion surrender their half-time lead 29% of the time, while FC Luzern have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 36% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that FC Luzern surrender HT leads in 38% of cases while FC Sion recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 50% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Sion 1.45 xG and FC Luzern 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Sion attack 0.836 / defence 0.701 | FC Luzern attack 1.012 / defence 1.000. League average goals — home 1.739 / away 1.584. FC Sion have a tight defence (rating 0.701), which is pulling FC Luzern's projected output down. Data: built from FC Sion's last 55 games and FC Luzern's last 55.
Result probabilities: FC Sion 44% | Draw 27% | FC Luzern 29%. Fair-value odds: FC Sion 2.27 | Draw 3.64 | FC Luzern 3.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Sion are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Sion if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.58 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 52% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.4 goals per game across 7 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: FC Sion 30% (last 10 home games) | FC Luzern 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Sion vs FC Luzern | Competition: Super League, matchday 23 | Venue: Stade de Tourbillon • Kick-off: Saturday 7 February 2026 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Sion 44% | Draw 27% | FC Luzern 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG FC Sion 1.45 / FC Luzern 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: FC Sion attack 0.836 / def 0.701 | FC Luzern attack 1.012 / def 1.000 | league avg home 1.739 / away 1.584 • Poisson stance: FC Sion (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
FC Sion xG
Expected Goals
1.12
FC Luzern xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FC Sion vs FC Luzern FAQs
What time does FC Sion vs FC Luzern kick off?
FC Sion vs FC Luzern kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Saturday 7 February 2026 at Stade de Tourbillon.
What was the final score in FC Sion vs FC Luzern?
FC Sion 0 - 0 FC Luzern.
Where is FC Sion vs FC Luzern being played?
The match is being played at Stade de Tourbillon.
What competition is FC Sion vs FC Luzern part of?
FC Sion vs FC Luzern is a Super League fixture (matchday 23) (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC Sion vs FC Luzern?
Our statistical model gives FC Sion a 44% chance of winning, FC Luzern a 29% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making FC Sion the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Sion vs FC Luzern?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both FC Sion and FC Luzern will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will FC Sion vs FC Luzern have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
FC Sion's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against FC Luzern's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.45. Flip it around — FC Luzern's attack (1.01x) against FC Sion's defence (0.70x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from FC Sion's last 55 games and FC Luzern's last 55 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.4%), 0-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Sion Win
44%
2.27
27%
3.64
29%
3.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
FC Sion xG
Total xG
2.58
1.12
FC Luzern xG
2.27
44%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
3.50
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
33%
3.07
23%
4.28
Win to Nil
14%
6.99
7%
14.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 8.5 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 12.4 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.0 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FC Sion vs FC Luzern Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Sion vs FC Luzern?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are FC Sion and FC Luzern expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for FC Sion and 1.12 for FC Luzern, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Sion vs FC Luzern?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 60 outings, FC Sion have picked up 1.28 PPG on a 19W 20D 21L record — L-W-D-D-D across the most recent five.
FC Luzern's form line: 19W 18D 23L from 60 games, 1.25 PPG, last five L-W-L-D-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.28 PPG for FC Sion against 1.25 for FC Luzern. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, FC Sion have posted 1.67 PPG from their last 30 home games (13W 11D 6L).
On the road, FC Luzern have gone 9W 8D 13L from their last 30 away games — 1.17 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Sion come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Sion are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; FC Luzern are on 1.77 scored and 1.78 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Sion have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; FC Luzern in 73%.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Sion
Blended
FC Luzern
Blended
FC Sion (Home) vs FC Luzern (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FC Sion
Blended
FC Luzern
Blended
❓ FC Sion vs FC Luzern Form FAQs
What form are FC Sion and FC Luzern in coming into this match?
FC Sion have gone 19W 20D 21L in their last 60 games (1.28 PPG), while FC Luzern have gone 19W 18D 23L in their last 60 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Sion at home or FC Luzern away?
FC Sion's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Sion at home: 1.67 PPG; FC Luzern away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to April 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was as recently as 31 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Sion won FC Sion 3-0 FC Luzern on 2 Aug 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Sion have gone 2W 2D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against FC Luzern — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
FC Sion
4
Draws
3
FC Luzern
Recent Meetings
❓ FC Sion vs FC Luzern H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FC Sion and FC Luzern?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, FC Sion have won 3, FC Luzern have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did FC Sion and FC Luzern last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 31 October 2026: FC Luzern 1-1 FC Sion.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC Sion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
FC Luzern are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 57% for FC Sion, 73% for FC Luzern — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (FC Sion) and 73% (FC Luzern). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 57% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Sion home games / FC Luzern away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FC Sion vs FC Luzern Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FC Sion and FC Luzern matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of FC Sion's games and 73% of FC Luzern's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are FC Sion and FC Luzern matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 43% of FC Sion's matches and 73% of FC Luzern's.
Do FC Sion and FC Luzern matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of FC Sion's recent matches and 77% of FC Luzern's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at FC Sion's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade de Tourbillon, Regular Season - 23, as FC Sion and FC Luzern drew 0-0 in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Sion 1.45 xG and FC Luzern 1.12 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. FC Sion fell 1.5 short of their projected output. FC Luzern landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Sion attack 0.84 / defence 0.70 against FC Luzern attack 1.01 / defence 1.00, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Sion 44% | Draw 27% | FC Luzern 29%, with FC Sion to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Sion 47%, FC Luzern 70%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Sion's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
FC Luzern's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Sion 1.28 PPG, FC Luzern 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FC Sion (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.57 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line. FC Luzern (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.63 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.