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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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FC Sion and FC Lugano share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Sion and FC Lugano finished level at 2-2 at Stade de Tourbillon, Championship Group - 37, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Sion 1.13 xG and FC Lugano 0.80 xG, a combined 1.93. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. FC Sion beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC Lugano outscored their 0.80 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Sion attack 0.93 / defence 0.66 against FC Lugano attack 0.84 / defence 0.71, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Sion 41% | Draw 36% | FC Lugano 23%, with FC Sion to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Sion 46%, FC Lugano 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Sion's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

FC Lugano's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC Sion 1.42 PPG, FC Lugano 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FC Sion (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Lugano (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights