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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as FC Lugano defy the odds to beat FC Thun 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Lugano beat FC Thun 1-0 at Stadio di Cornaredo, Regular Season - 32, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Lugano 1.52 xG and FC Thun 1.65 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. FC Thun landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Lugano attack 1.07 / defence 0.94 against FC Thun attack 1.21 / defence 0.83, drawn from 64/31 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Lugano 33% | Draw 29% | FC Thun 38%, with FC Thun to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual FC Lugano win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Lugano 48%, FC Thun 81%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 71%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Lugano's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.

FC Thun's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, FC Thun arrived the stronger side — 2.29 PPG against 1.65. Form was overturned, with FC Lugano winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. FC Lugano (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.93 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. FC Thun (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.20 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights