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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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FC Lugano cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over FC Basel 1893.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Lugano beat FC Basel 1893 3-1 at Stadio di Cornaredo, Regular Season - 3, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Lugano 1.38 xG and FC Basel 1893 1.60 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. FC Lugano beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Lugano attack 0.89 / defence 1.08 against FC Basel 1893 attack 1.10 / defence 0.89, drawn from 35/36 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it FC Lugano 31% | Draw 29% | FC Basel 1893 40%, with FC Basel 1893 to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual FC Lugano win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Lugano 55%, FC Basel 1893 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Lugano's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

FC Basel 1893's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, FC Basel 1893 arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 1.35. Form was overturned, with FC Lugano winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. FC Lugano (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.68 average — above their attacking norm. FC Basel 1893 (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.47 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.42 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights