FC Basel 1893 2-0 Yverdon Sport – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Basel 1893 at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Basel 1893 vs Yverdon Sport fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Yverdon Sport make the trip to St. Jakob-Park to face FC Basel 1893 in Super League, Regular Season - 5. The match kicks off on Sunday 25 August 2024 at 15:30 UTC.
Form
FC Basel 1893 (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. FC Basel 1893 have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, FC Basel 1893 have posted 3W 4D 3L at St. Jakob-Park — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Yverdon Sport's overall Super League record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Yverdon Sport have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Super League this season, Yverdon Sport have posted 0W 2D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for FC Basel 1893 against 1.20 for Yverdon Sport. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: FC Basel 1893 2W, Yverdon Sport 1W, 1D.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 May 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
FC Basel 1893 half-time and goal-timing data (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Yverdon Sport half-time and goal-timing data (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Basel 1893 52% versus Yverdon Sport 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Basel 1893 52% | Yverdon Sport 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Basel 1893 1.65 xG and Yverdon Sport 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Basel 1893 attack 0.885 / defence 1.030 | Yverdon Sport attack 0.846 / defence 1.061. League average goals — home 1.759 / away 1.320. Data: 37 FC Basel 1893 games / 37 Yverdon Sport games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: FC Basel 1893 49% | Draw 24% | Yverdon Sport 27%. Fair-value odds: FC Basel 1893 2.04 | Draw 4.17 | Yverdon Sport 3.70. FC Basel 1893 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Basel 1893 at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Basel 1893 if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.80 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC Basel 1893 60% | Yverdon Sport 50% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (37 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Basel 1893 vs Yverdon Sport | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: St. Jakob-Park • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Aug 2024, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Basel 1893 49% | Draw 24% | Yverdon Sport 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 55% | xG FC Basel 1893 1.65 / Yverdon Sport 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: FC Basel 1893 attack 0.885 / def 1.030 | Yverdon Sport attack 0.846 / def 1.061 | league avg home 1.759 / away 1.320 • Poisson stance: FC Basel 1893 (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
FC Basel 1893 xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Yverdon Sport xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Basel 1893 vs Yverdon Sport kick off?
FC Basel 1893 vs Yverdon Sport kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 25 August 2024 at St. Jakob-Park.
What was the final score in FC Basel 1893 vs Yverdon Sport?
FC Basel 1893 2 - 0 Yverdon Sport.
Where is FC Basel 1893 vs Yverdon Sport being played?
The match is being played at St. Jakob-Park.
What competition is FC Basel 1893 vs Yverdon Sport part of?
FC Basel 1893 vs Yverdon Sport is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC Basel 1893 vs Yverdon Sport?
Our statistical model gives FC Basel 1893 a 49% chance of winning, Yverdon Sport a 27% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making FC Basel 1893 the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Basel 1893 vs Yverdon Sport?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both FC Basel 1893 and Yverdon Sport will score (BTTS).
Will FC Basel 1893 vs Yverdon Sport have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Basel 1893 and Yverdon Sport?
Record (4 meetings): FC Basel 1893 2W | Draws 1 | Yverdon Sport 1W.
What form are FC Basel 1893 and Yverdon Sport in?
FC Basel 1893 (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-L-L-W-W. Yverdon Sport (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
FC Basel 1893's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Yverdon Sport's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.65. Flip it around — Yverdon Sport's attack (0.85x) against FC Basel 1893's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
The sample (37/37 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Basel 1893 Win
49%
2.04
24%
4.10
27%
3.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
FC Basel 1893 xG
Total xG
2.80
1.15
Yverdon Sport xG
2.04
49%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
3.77
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
19%
5.22
Win to Nil
16%
6.44
5%
19.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 11.5 | 6.6 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.5 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.2 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Basel 1893 vs Yverdon Sport?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are FC Basel 1893 and Yverdon Sport expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for FC Basel 1893 and 1.15 for Yverdon Sport, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Basel 1893 vs Yverdon Sport?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 42 outings, FC Basel 1893 have picked up 1.31 PPG on a 15W 10D 17L record — D-L-L-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for FC Basel 1893, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Yverdon Sport's form line: 13W 10D 19L from 42 games, 1.17 PPG, last five D-L-L-D-D. It's still early in the season for Yverdon Sport, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.31 PPG for FC Basel 1893 against 1.17 for Yverdon Sport. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, FC Basel 1893 have posted 1.35 PPG from 20 outings (7W 6D 7L).
On the road, Yverdon Sport have gone 1W 5D 14L from 20 away games — 0.40 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.17 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Yverdon Sport's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Basel 1893 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
FC Basel 1893 are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Yverdon Sport are on 1.29 scored and 1.86 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Yverdon Sport in 62%.
Last 42 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Basel 1893
Early Season
Yverdon Sport
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Basel 1893 and Yverdon Sport in coming into this match?
FC Basel 1893 have gone 15W 10D 17L in their last 42 games (1.31 PPG), while Yverdon Sport have gone 13W 10D 19L in their last 42 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Basel 1893 at home or Yverdon Sport away?
FC Basel 1893's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Basel 1893 at home: 1.35 PPG; Yverdon Sport away: 0.40 PPG.
Have FC Basel 1893 or Yverdon Sport been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Basel 1893 have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Yverdon Sport in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: FC Basel 1893 have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Basel 1893 won 5-0 on 21 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Basel 1893 have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Yverdon Sport — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
5
FC Basel 1893
1
Draws
1
Yverdon Sport
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Basel 1893 and Yverdon Sport?
From 7 meetings on record, FC Basel 1893 have won 5, Yverdon Sport have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC Basel 1893 and Yverdon Sport last play each other?
They last met on 21 April 2025, when FC Basel 1893 5-0 Yverdon Sport.
Who has won more matches between FC Basel 1893 and Yverdon Sport?
FC Basel 1893 have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC Basel 1893 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Yverdon Sport are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Basel 1893 55%, Yverdon Sport 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (FC Basel 1893) and 55% (Yverdon Sport).
On the defensive side: Yverdon Sport in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Basel 1893 home games / Yverdon Sport away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Basel 1893 play Yverdon Sport?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of FC Basel 1893's games and 65% of Yverdon Sport's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Basel 1893 vs Yverdon Sport usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of FC Basel 1893's recent games and 55% of Yverdon Sport's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Basel 1893 and Yverdon Sport tend to score early?
FC Basel 1893 have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Yverdon Sport in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Basel 1893 cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Yverdon Sport.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Basel 1893 beat Yverdon Sport 2-0 at St. Jakob-Park, Regular Season - 5, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Basel 1893 1.65 xG and Yverdon Sport 1.15 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Yverdon Sport landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Basel 1893 attack 0.89 / defence 1.03 against Yverdon Sport attack 0.85 / defence 1.06, drawn from 37/37 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it FC Basel 1893 49% | Draw 24% | Yverdon Sport 27%, with FC Basel 1893 to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Basel 1893 52%, Yverdon Sport 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Basel 1893's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Yverdon Sport's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Basel 1893 1.31 PPG, Yverdon Sport 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Basel 1893 win broke the near-deadlock. FC Basel 1893 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.