FC Sion 1-1 FC Basel 1893 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Basel 1893 at 43% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Sion vs FC Basel 1893 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Sion host FC Basel 1893 at Stade de Tourbillon in Super League, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 31 August 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
FC Sion — All Games: 3W 0D 2L from 5 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 2 clean sheets in 5 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. FC Sion have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all Super League games this season, FC Basel 1893 have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. FC Basel 1893 have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Basel 1893 away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.80 PPG (FC Sion) versus 1.80 (FC Basel 1893). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, FC Sion have won 0, FC Basel 1893 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Apr 2023, ended 1–2 with FC Basel 1893 winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
FC Sion in-play tendencies (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
FC Basel 1893 in-play tendencies (5 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Sion 40% versus FC Basel 1893 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC Sion 60% | FC Basel 1893 80%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Sion 1.48 xG and FC Basel 1893 1.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Sion attack 1.068 / defence 0.878 | FC Basel 1893 attack 1.491 / defence 0.783. League average goals — home 1.768 / away 1.291. FC Basel 1893's defence strength of 0.783 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. FC Basel 1893 have an above-average attack strength of 1.491 — the away xG of 1.69 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 5 FC Sion games / 38 FC Basel 1893 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Sion 34% | Draw 23% | FC Basel 1893 43%. Fair-value odds: FC Sion 2.94 | Draw 4.35 | FC Basel 1893 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.48 / 1.69) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC Basel 1893 as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Basel 1893 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.17 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. This conflicts with form data: FC Sion 40% | FC Basel 1893 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Sion vs FC Basel 1893 | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stade de Tourbillon • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Aug 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Sion 34% | Draw 23% | FC Basel 1893 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 63% | xG FC Sion 1.48 / FC Basel 1893 1.69 • Poisson strength factors: FC Sion attack 1.068 / def 0.878 | FC Basel 1893 attack 1.491 / def 0.783 | league avg home 1.768 / away 1.291 • Poisson stance: FC Basel 1893 (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
FC Sion xG
Expected Goals
1.69
FC Basel 1893 xG
63%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Sion vs FC Basel 1893 kick off?
FC Sion vs FC Basel 1893 kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 31 August 2024 at Stade de Tourbillon.
What was the final score in FC Sion vs FC Basel 1893?
FC Sion 1 - 1 FC Basel 1893.
Where is FC Sion vs FC Basel 1893 being played?
The match is being played at Stade de Tourbillon.
What competition is FC Sion vs FC Basel 1893 part of?
FC Sion vs FC Basel 1893 is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC Sion vs FC Basel 1893?
Our statistical model gives FC Sion a 34% chance of winning, FC Basel 1893 a 43% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making FC Basel 1893 the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Sion vs FC Basel 1893?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both FC Sion and FC Basel 1893 will score (BTTS).
Will FC Sion vs FC Basel 1893 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Sion and FC Basel 1893?
Record (3 meetings): FC Sion 0W | Draws 1 | FC Basel 1893 2W.
What form are FC Sion and FC Basel 1893 in?
FC Sion (all comps): 3W-0D-2L in 5 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. FC Basel 1893 (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.60 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
FC Sion's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against FC Basel 1893's defensive record (0.78x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.48. The same calculation in reverse, FC Basel 1893's attack versus FC Sion's defence, projects 1.69 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Basel 1893 Win
34%
2.96
23%
4.27
43%
2.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
2 – 1
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
FC Sion xG
Total xG
3.17
1.69
FC Basel 1893 xG
2.96
34%
Home win
4.27
23%
Draw
2.34
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.70
Clean Sheet
18%
5.41
23%
4.39
Win to Nil
6%
16.02
10%
10.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 7.1 | 6.0 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 10.5 | 8.9 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.8 | 6.6 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.8 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Sion vs FC Basel 1893?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are FC Sion and FC Basel 1893 expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for FC Sion and 1.69 for FC Basel 1893, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Sion vs FC Basel 1893?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC Sion come into this having played 5 games, going 3W 0D 2L for 1.80 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for FC Sion, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, FC Basel 1893 sit at 1.80 PPG from 5 outings (3W 0D 2L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for FC Basel 1893, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Sion on 1.80 PPG, FC Basel 1893 on 1.80. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
The Goals Picture
FC Sion are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; FC Basel 1893 are on 2.80 scored and 1.00 conceded. FC Sion's scoring rate against FC Basel 1893's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: FC Sion have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games; FC Basel 1893 in 60% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Sion
Early Season
FC Basel 1893
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Sion and FC Basel 1893 in coming into this match?
FC Sion have gone 3W 0D 2L in their last 5 games (1.80 PPG), while FC Basel 1893 have gone 3W 0D 2L in their last 5 (1.80 PPG).
Have FC Sion or FC Basel 1893 been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Sion have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, FC Basel 1893 in 60%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Sion and FC Basel 1893 runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
FC Sion go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Jan 2025, when FC Basel 1893 won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Sion's record when hosting FC Basel 1893 specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
FC Sion
3
Draws
5
FC Basel 1893
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Sion and FC Basel 1893?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Sion have won 2, FC Basel 1893 have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FC Sion and FC Basel 1893 last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when FC Basel 1893 0-2 FC Sion.
Who has won more matches between FC Sion and FC Basel 1893?
FC Basel 1893 have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Sion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
FC Basel 1893 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Sion 40%, FC Basel 1893 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for FC Sion and 80% for FC Basel 1893. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Sion keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; FC Basel 1893 in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Sion home games / FC Basel 1893 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Sion play FC Basel 1893?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of FC Sion's recent matches and 40% of FC Basel 1893's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Sion vs FC Basel 1893 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of FC Sion's matches and 80% of FC Basel 1893's.
Do FC Sion and FC Basel 1893 tend to score early?
FC Sion have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, FC Basel 1893 in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Sion and FC Basel 1893 share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Sion and FC Basel 1893 finished level at 1-1 at Stade de Tourbillon, Regular Season - 6, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Sion 1.48 xG and FC Basel 1893 1.69 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Sion attack 1.07 / defence 0.88 against FC Basel 1893 attack 1.49 / defence 0.78, drawn from 5/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Sion 34% | Draw 23% | FC Basel 1893 43%, with FC Basel 1893 to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Sion 60%, FC Basel 1893 80%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Sion's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
FC Basel 1893's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Sion 1.80 PPG, FC Basel 1893 1.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FC Sion managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward. FC Basel 1893 managed 1 against a 2.80 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.