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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as FC Thun edge out FC Basel 1893 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Thun beat FC Basel 1893 1-2 at St. Jakob-Park, Regular Season - 22, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Basel 1893 1.17 xG and FC Thun 1.19 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. FC Thun outscored their 1.19 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Basel 1893 attack 0.78 / defence 0.65 against FC Thun attack 1.15 / defence 0.87, drawn from 54/21 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Basel 1893 35% | Draw 29% | FC Thun 36%, with FC Thun to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Basel 1893 57%, FC Thun 76%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Basel 1893's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

FC Thun's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, FC Thun arrived the stronger side — 2.19 PPG against 1.71. The form guide was vindicated by the result. FC Basel 1893 (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights