FC Basel 1893 0-2 FC Sion – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates FC Sion at 35%, yet the head-to-head data favours FC Basel 1893 — this FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Basel 1893 host FC Sion at St. Jakob-Park in Super League (Championship Group - 34). Kick-off is Sunday 26 April 2026 at 14:00 UK time.
Form Guide
FC Basel 1893 — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, FC Basel 1893 have gone 3W 6D 1L in their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, FC Sion stand at 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W D W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
FC Sion's form when playing away from home: 2W 5D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (FC Basel 1893) versus 1.80 (FC Sion). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from FC Basel 1893's last 10 home games and FC Sion's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
FC Basel 1893 hold a clear advantage across the 8 H2H matches in our data, with 5 wins compared to 1 for FC Sion and 2 draws.
The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 12 Feb 2026, ended FC Basel 1893 0–2 FC Sion — a FC Sion win.
The head-to-head data gives FC Basel 1893 an edge — 5 wins from 8 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
In-Play Data
FC Basel 1893 trading profile (last 71 games, 35 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; of the 34 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
FC Sion trading profile (last 71 games, 35 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Basel 1893 62% versus FC Sion 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Basel 1893 62% | FC Sion 46%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: FC Basel 1893 surrender their half-time lead 26% of the time, while FC Sion have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Basel 1893 1.34 xG and FC Sion 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Basel 1893 attack 0.969 / defence 0.879 | FC Sion attack 1.090 / defence 0.811. League average goals — home 1.708 / away 1.428. Data: built from FC Basel 1893's last 66 games and FC Sion's last 66.
Result probabilities: FC Basel 1893 34% | Draw 31% | FC Sion 35%. Fair-value odds: FC Basel 1893 2.94 | Draw 3.26 | FC Sion 2.83. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Sion are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Sion offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.71 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: FC Basel 1893 70% (last 10 home games) | FC Sion 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion | Competition: Super League, Championship Group - 34 | Venue: St. Jakob-Park • Kick-off: Sunday 26 April 2026 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Basel 1893 34% | Draw 31% | FC Sion 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG FC Basel 1893 1.34 / FC Sion 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: FC Basel 1893 attack 0.969 / def 0.879 | FC Sion attack 1.090 / def 0.811 | league avg home 1.708 / away 1.428 • Poisson stance: FC Sion (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
FC Basel 1893 xG
Expected Goals
1.37
FC Sion xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion FAQs
What time does FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion kick off?
FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 26 April 2026 at St. Jakob-Park.
What was the final score in FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion?
FC Basel 1893 0 - 2 FC Sion.
Where is FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion being played?
The match is being played at St. Jakob-Park.
What competition is FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion part of?
FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion is a Super League fixture (Championship Group - 34) (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion?
Our statistical model gives FC Basel 1893 a 34% chance of winning, FC Sion a 35% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making FC Sion the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both FC Basel 1893 and FC Sion will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from FC Basel 1893's attack rating (0.97) and FC Sion's defence rating (0.81), the model arrives at 1.34 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Sion's attack versus FC Basel 1893's defence, projects 1.37 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from FC Basel 1893's last 66 games and FC Sion's last 66 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 0-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Sion Win
34%
2.94
31%
3.26
35%
2.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
FC Basel 1893 xG
Total xG
2.71
1.37
FC Sion xG
2.94
34%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
2.83
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
25%
3.93
26%
3.83
Win to Nil
9%
11.53
9%
10.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 9.1 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.2 | 8.4 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.2 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are FC Basel 1893 and FC Sion expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for FC Basel 1893 and 1.37 for FC Sion, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Basel 1893 come into this having played 71 games, going 37W 15D 19L for 1.77 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-D-L.
On the other side, FC Sion sit at 1.35 PPG from 71 outings (24W 24D 23L), a run that reads D-W-D-W-W across their last five.
FC Basel 1893 carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.42 PPG clear of FC Sion — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
FC Basel 1893's home form reads 20W 8D 7L across their last 35 home games, a 1.94 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Sion have taken 0.97 points per game from their last 35 away games (8W 10D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Basel 1893 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Basel 1893 are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; FC Sion are on 1.38 scored and 1.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Basel 1893 have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 71 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Basel 1893
Current Season
FC Sion
Current Season
FC Basel 1893 (Home) vs FC Sion (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FC Basel 1893
Current Season
FC Sion
Current Season
❓ FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion Form FAQs
What form are FC Basel 1893 and FC Sion in coming into this match?
FC Basel 1893 have gone 37W 15D 19L in their last 71 games (1.77 PPG), while FC Sion have gone 24W 24D 23L in their last 71 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Basel 1893 at home or FC Sion away?
FC Basel 1893's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Basel 1893 at home: 1.94 PPG; FC Sion away: 0.97 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from February 2023. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was as recently as 3 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
FC Sion have won the most recent 3 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 26 Jan 2025, when FC Basel 1893 won FC Basel 1893 4-1 FC Sion.
FC Basel 1893's record when hosting FC Sion specifically: 3W 1D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
FC Basel 1893
2
Draws
3
FC Sion
Recent Meetings
❓ FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FC Basel 1893 and FC Sion?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, FC Basel 1893 have won 5, FC Sion have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Basel 1893 and FC Sion last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 September 2026: FC Basel 1893 1-2 FC Sion.
Who has won more matches between FC Basel 1893 and FC Sion?
FC Basel 1893 have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Basel 1893 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 49% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
FC Sion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Basel 1893 57%, FC Sion 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (FC Basel 1893) and 51% (FC Sion).
On the defensive side: FC Basel 1893 keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; FC Sion in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Basel 1893 home games / FC Sion away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FC Basel 1893 and FC Sion matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of FC Basel 1893's games and 60% of FC Sion's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are FC Basel 1893 and FC Sion matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of FC Basel 1893's recent games and 51% of FC Sion's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Basel 1893 and FC Sion matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of FC Basel 1893's recent matches and 74% of FC Sion's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Sion cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over FC Basel 1893.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Sion beat FC Basel 1893 0-2 at St. Jakob-Park, Championship Group - 34, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Basel 1893 1.34 xG and FC Sion 1.37 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. FC Basel 1893 fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Basel 1893 attack 0.97 / defence 0.88 against FC Sion attack 1.09 / defence 0.81, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Basel 1893 34% | Draw 31% | FC Sion 35%, with FC Sion to win its most likely call at 35%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Basel 1893 62%, FC Sion 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Basel 1893's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
FC Sion's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Basel 1893 arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.35. Form was overturned, with FC Sion winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. FC Basel 1893 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.94 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Sion (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.66 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.