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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant FC Basel 1893 run riot with a 4-1 hammering of FC Sion.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Basel 1893 beat FC Sion 4-1 at St. Jakob-Park, Regular Season - 20, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Basel 1893 1.56 xG and FC Sion 0.89 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. FC Basel 1893 beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Basel 1893 attack 1.10 / defence 0.89 against FC Sion attack 0.82 / defence 1.01, drawn from 52/19 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Basel 1893 51% | Draw 29% | FC Sion 20%, with FC Basel 1893 to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Basel 1893 58%, FC Sion 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Basel 1893's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

FC Sion's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC Basel 1893 1.63 PPG, FC Sion 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Basel 1893 win broke the near-deadlock. FC Basel 1893 (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm. FC Sion (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights