FC Basel 1893 4-1 FC Sion – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Basel 1893 at 51% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as FC Basel 1893 face FC Sion.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Basel 1893 host FC Sion at St. Jakob-Park in Super League (matchday 20). Kick-off is Sunday 26 January 2025 at 15:30 UK time.
Form Guide
FC Basel 1893 — last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W D D L D. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home, FC Basel 1893 have gone 5W 2D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at their last 10 matches, FC Sion stand at 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
FC Sion's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 5L across their last 9 road games (1.11 PPG). Away from home they average 0.89 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.80 PPG (FC Basel 1893) versus 1.40 (FC Sion). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, FC Basel 1893 have won 2, FC Sion 0, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 31 Aug 2024, ended FC Basel 1893 1–1 FC Sion — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
FC Basel 1893 trading profile (last 19 games, 9 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 89% of their matches in home games; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
FC Sion trading profile (last 19 games, 9 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Basel 1893 58% versus FC Sion 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Basel 1893 58% | FC Sion 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Basel 1893 1.56 xG and FC Sion 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Basel 1893 attack 1.099 / defence 0.891 | FC Sion attack 0.817 / defence 1.010. League average goals — home 1.410 / away 1.227. Data: built from FC Basel 1893's last 52 games and FC Sion's last 19.
Result probabilities: FC Basel 1893 51% | Draw 29% | FC Sion 20%. Fair-value odds: FC Basel 1893 1.96 | Draw 3.40 | FC Sion 5.13. FC Basel 1893 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Basel 1893 are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Basel 1893 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.46 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 55% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: FC Basel 1893 40% (last 10 home games) | FC Sion 44% (last 9 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion | Competition: Super League, matchday 20 | Venue: St. Jakob-Park • Kick-off: Sunday 26 January 2025 at 15:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Basel 1893 51% | Draw 29% | FC Sion 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG FC Basel 1893 1.56 / FC Sion 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: FC Basel 1893 attack 1.099 / def 0.891 | FC Sion attack 0.817 / def 1.010 | league avg home 1.410 / away 1.227 • Poisson stance: FC Basel 1893 (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
FC Basel 1893 xG
Expected Goals
0.89
FC Sion xG
49%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion FAQs
What time does FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion kick off?
FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion kicked off at 15:30 UK time on Sunday 26 January 2025 at St. Jakob-Park.
What was the final score in FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion?
FC Basel 1893 4 - 1 FC Sion.
Where is FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion being played?
The match is being played at St. Jakob-Park.
What competition is FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion part of?
FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion is a Super League fixture (matchday 20) (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion?
Our statistical model gives FC Basel 1893 a 51% chance of winning, FC Sion a 20% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making FC Basel 1893 the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both FC Basel 1893 and FC Sion will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from FC Basel 1893's attack rating (1.10) and FC Sion's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.56 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Sion's attack versus FC Basel 1893's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from FC Basel 1893's last 52 games and FC Sion's last 19 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.8%), 2-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Basel 1893 Win
51%
1.96
29%
3.40
20%
5.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
FC Basel 1893 xG
Total xG
2.46
0.89
FC Sion xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
5.13
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
21%
4.78
Win to Nil
21%
4.78
4%
24.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 7.6 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.4 | 12.0 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.4 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.5 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are FC Basel 1893 and FC Sion expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for FC Basel 1893 and 0.89 for FC Sion, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Basel 1893 come into this having played 19 games, going 9W 4D 6L for 1.63 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-L-D.
On the other side, FC Sion sit at 1.37 PPG from 19 outings (7W 5D 7L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Basel 1893 on 1.63 PPG, FC Sion on 1.37. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
FC Basel 1893's home form reads 5W 1D 3L across their last 9 home games, a 1.78 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Sion have taken 1.11 points per game from their last 9 away games (3W 1D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Basel 1893 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Basel 1893 are averaging 2.21 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; FC Sion are on 1.32 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Last 19 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Basel 1893
Blended
FC Sion
Blended
FC Basel 1893 (Home) vs FC Sion (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FC Basel 1893
Blended
FC Sion
Blended
❓ FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion Form FAQs
What form are FC Basel 1893 and FC Sion in coming into this match?
FC Basel 1893 have gone 9W 4D 6L in their last 19 games (1.63 PPG), while FC Sion have gone 7W 5D 7L in their last 19 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Basel 1893 at home or FC Sion away?
FC Basel 1893's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Basel 1893 at home: 1.78 PPG; FC Sion away: 1.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from February 2023. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was as recently as 3 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
FC Sion have won the most recent 3 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 26 Jan 2025, when FC Basel 1893 won FC Basel 1893 4-1 FC Sion.
FC Basel 1893's record when hosting FC Sion specifically: 3W 1D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
FC Basel 1893
2
Draws
3
FC Sion
Recent Meetings
❓ FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FC Basel 1893 and FC Sion?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, FC Basel 1893 have won 5, FC Sion have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Basel 1893 and FC Sion last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 September 2026: FC Basel 1893 1-2 FC Sion.
Who has won more matches between FC Basel 1893 and FC Sion?
FC Basel 1893 have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Basel 1893 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
FC Sion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Basel 1893 44%, FC Sion 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (FC Basel 1893) and 44% (FC Sion).
On the defensive side: FC Basel 1893 keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; FC Sion in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Basel 1893 home games / FC Sion away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FC Basel 1893 and FC Sion matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of FC Basel 1893's recent matches and 44% of FC Sion's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are FC Basel 1893 and FC Sion matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of FC Basel 1893's recent games and 44% of FC Sion's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Basel 1893 and FC Sion matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 89% of FC Basel 1893's recent matches and 67% of FC Sion's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant FC Basel 1893 run riot with a 4-1 hammering of FC Sion.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Basel 1893 beat FC Sion 4-1 at St. Jakob-Park, Regular Season - 20, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Basel 1893 1.56 xG and FC Sion 0.89 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. FC Basel 1893 beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Basel 1893 attack 1.10 / defence 0.89 against FC Sion attack 0.82 / defence 1.01, drawn from 52/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Basel 1893 51% | Draw 29% | FC Sion 20%, with FC Basel 1893 to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Basel 1893 58%, FC Sion 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Basel 1893's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
FC Sion's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Basel 1893 1.63 PPG, FC Sion 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Basel 1893 win broke the near-deadlock. FC Basel 1893 (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm. FC Sion (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.