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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as FC Lugano defy the odds to beat FC Basel 1893 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Lugano beat FC Basel 1893 0-1 at St. Jakob-Park, Regular Season - 13, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Basel 1893 2.26 xG and FC Lugano 1.06 xG, a combined 3.32. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. FC Basel 1893 fell 2.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Basel 1893 attack 1.06 / defence 0.81 against FC Lugano attack 0.99 / defence 1.12, drawn from 45/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Basel 1893 64% | Draw 19% | FC Lugano 17%, with FC Basel 1893 to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a FC Lugano win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Basel 1893 65%, FC Lugano 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Basel 1893's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

FC Lugano's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, FC Basel 1893 arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 1.43. Form was overturned, with FC Lugano winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. FC Basel 1893 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.29 scoring average — below par going forward. FC Lugano (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights