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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Lausanne cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over BSC Young Boys.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lausanne beat BSC Young Boys 1-3 at Stadion Wankdorf, Regular Season - 20, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting BSC Young Boys 1.42 xG and Lausanne 1.19 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Lausanne outscored their 1.19 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of BSC Young Boys attack 1.19 / defence 1.04 against Lausanne attack 0.76 / defence 0.72, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it BSC Young Boys 42% | Draw 26% | Lausanne 31%, with BSC Young Boys to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Lausanne win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (BSC Young Boys 63%, Lausanne 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

BSC Young Boys's trading profile (57 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Lausanne's trading profile (57 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — BSC Young Boys 1.58 PPG, Lausanne 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lausanne win broke the near-deadlock. BSC Young Boys (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.30 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lausanne (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights