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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Vasteras SK FK and Orgryte IS share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Hitachi Energy Arena, Regular Season - 2, as Vasteras SK FK and Orgryte IS drew 1-1 in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Vasteras SK FK 1.02 xG and Orgryte IS 1.44 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vasteras SK FK attack 0.87 / defence 1.15 against Orgryte IS attack 1.01 / defence 0.99, drawn from 1/31 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Vasteras SK FK 27% | Draw 27% | Orgryte IS 47%, with Orgryte IS to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vasteras SK FK 53%, Orgryte IS 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Vasteras SK FK's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.

Orgryte IS's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Vasteras SK FK arrived the stronger side — 2.10 PPG against 1.47. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights