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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Vasteras SK FK defy the odds to beat Landskrona BoIS 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Vasteras SK FK beat Landskrona BoIS 1-0 at Hitachi Energy Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Vasteras SK FK 1.72 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.82 xG, a combined 3.55. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Landskrona BoIS landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vasteras SK FK attack 0.94 / defence 1.10 against Landskrona BoIS attack 1.22 / defence 1.23, drawn from 13/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Vasteras SK FK 37% | Draw 22% | Landskrona BoIS 41%, with Landskrona BoIS to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Vasteras SK FK win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vasteras SK FK 53%, Landskrona BoIS 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Vasteras SK FK's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.

Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Vasteras SK FK arrived the stronger side — 2.10 PPG against 1.63. That form edge translated into the three points. Landskrona BoIS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights