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Poisson model rates Landskrona BoIS at 41%, yet in-form Vasteras SK FK provide a compelling counter-argument — this Vasteras SK FK vs Landskrona BoIS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 14 as Vasteras SK FK welcome Landskrona BoIS to Hitachi Energy Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 28 June 2025 at 12:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Vasteras SK FK — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Vasteras SK FK haven't played a Superettan game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Vasteras SK FK's form when playing at home: 8W 1D 1L across 10 games at Hitachi Energy Arena this term (2.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Hitachi Energy Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Vasteras SK FK are significantly better at Hitachi Energy Arena than their overall form suggests.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Landskrona BoIS stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

Landskrona BoIS's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.

Vasteras SK FK carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 1.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

H2H

The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Vasteras SK FK, 2 for Landskrona BoIS and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.7 per contest from 6 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 22 Oct 2023, ended 1–0 with Vasteras SK FK winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Profile

Vasteras SK FK in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.

Landskrona BoIS in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vasteras SK FK 40% versus Landskrona BoIS 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vasteras SK FK 53% | Landskrona BoIS 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Vasteras SK FK 1.72 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vasteras SK FK attack 0.936 / defence 1.103 | Landskrona BoIS attack 1.221 / defence 1.230. League average goals — home 1.498 / away 1.353. Landskrona BoIS bring a strong defensive rating of 1.230 — this is suppressing Vasteras SK FK's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Landskrona BoIS have an above-average attack strength of 1.221 — the away xG of 1.82 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 13 Vasteras SK FK games / 43 Landskrona BoIS games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Vasteras SK FK 37% | Draw 22% | Landskrona BoIS 41%. Fair-value odds: Vasteras SK FK 2.70 | Draw 4.55 | Landskrona BoIS 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.55. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.55 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.72 / 1.82) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Landskrona BoIS at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Vasteras SK FK (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Landskrona BoIS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.55 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 69% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Vasteras SK FK 30% | Landskrona BoIS 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.

The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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