Vasteras SK FK 1-3 Falkenbergs FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vasteras SK FK at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vasteras SK FK vs Falkenbergs FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees Falkenbergs FF travel to Iver Arena to take on Vasteras SK FK. The game is scheduled for Saturday 28 August 2021, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Vasteras SK FK stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Superettan matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Vasteras SK FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vasteras SK FK's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 2L across 9 games at Iver Arena this term (1.44 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.44 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Vasteras SK FK are significantly better at Iver Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all Superettan games this season, Falkenbergs FF have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Falkenbergs FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Falkenbergs FF away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.60 PPG (Vasteras SK FK) versus 0.90 (Falkenbergs FF). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Vasteras SK FK, 1 for Falkenbergs FF and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 Jun 2021, ended 1–2 with Falkenbergs FF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Vasteras SK FK in-play tendencies (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 41% of games.
Falkenbergs FF in-play tendencies (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 38% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vasteras SK FK 53% versus Falkenbergs FF 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vasteras SK FK 53% | Falkenbergs FF 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vasteras SK FK 1.68 xG and Falkenbergs FF 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vasteras SK FK attack 0.996 / defence 1.448 | Falkenbergs FF attack 0.740 / defence 1.551. League average goals — home 1.085 / away 1.025. Falkenbergs FF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.551 — this is suppressing Vasteras SK FK's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 17 Vasteras SK FK games / 17 Falkenbergs FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vasteras SK FK 51% | Draw 24% | Falkenbergs FF 25%. Fair-value odds: Vasteras SK FK 1.96 | Draw 4.17 | Falkenbergs FF 4.00. Vasteras SK FK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Vasteras SK FK are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Vasteras SK FK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.77 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Vasteras SK FK 56% | Falkenbergs FF 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vasteras SK FK vs Falkenbergs FF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Iver Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Aug 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vasteras SK FK 51% | Draw 24% | Falkenbergs FF 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 54% | xG Vasteras SK FK 1.68 / Falkenbergs FF 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Vasteras SK FK attack 0.996 / def 1.448 | Falkenbergs FF attack 0.740 / def 1.551 | league avg home 1.085 / away 1.025 • Poisson stance: Vasteras SK FK (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Vasteras SK FK xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Falkenbergs FF xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vasteras SK FK vs Falkenbergs FF kick off?
Vasteras SK FK vs Falkenbergs FF kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 28 August 2021 at Iver Arena.
What was the final score in Vasteras SK FK vs Falkenbergs FF?
Vasteras SK FK 1 - 3 Falkenbergs FF.
Where is Vasteras SK FK vs Falkenbergs FF being played?
The match is being played at Iver Arena.
What competition is Vasteras SK FK vs Falkenbergs FF part of?
Vasteras SK FK vs Falkenbergs FF is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Vasteras SK FK vs Falkenbergs FF?
Our statistical model gives Vasteras SK FK a 51% chance of winning, Falkenbergs FF a 25% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Vasteras SK FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vasteras SK FK vs Falkenbergs FF?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Vasteras SK FK and Falkenbergs FF will score (BTTS).
Will Vasteras SK FK vs Falkenbergs FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vasteras SK FK and Falkenbergs FF?
Record (1 meetings): Vasteras SK FK 0W | Draws 0 | Falkenbergs FF 1W.
What form are Vasteras SK FK and Falkenbergs FF in?
Vasteras SK FK (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-L-L-D. Falkenbergs FF (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Vasteras SK FK's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Falkenbergs FF's defensive record (1.55x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.68. The same calculation in reverse, Falkenbergs FF's attack versus Vasteras SK FK's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vasteras SK FK Win
51%
1.97
24%
4.13
25%
4.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Vasteras SK FK xG
Total xG
2.77
1.10
Falkenbergs FF xG
1.97
51%
Home win
4.13
24%
Draw
4.01
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
19%
5.34
Win to Nil
17%
5.89
5%
21.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 6.9 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 11.5 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.6 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vasteras SK FK vs Falkenbergs FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Vasteras SK FK and Falkenbergs FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Vasteras SK FK and 1.10 for Falkenbergs FF, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Vasteras SK FK vs Falkenbergs FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 17 outings, Vasteras SK FK have picked up 1.06 PPG on a 4W 6D 7L record — L-W-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Vasteras SK FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Falkenbergs FF's form line: 4W 3D 10L from 17 games, 0.88 PPG, last five L-D-D-L-W. The sample for Falkenbergs FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Vasteras SK FK on 1.06 PPG, Falkenbergs FF on 0.88. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Vasteras SK FK have posted 1.50 PPG from 8 outings (3W 3D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.06 PPG overall — Vasteras SK FK are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Falkenbergs FF have gone 1W 1D 6L from 8 away games — 0.50 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Vasteras SK FK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Vasteras SK FK are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Falkenbergs FF are on 0.94 scored and 1.76 conceded.
Last 17 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vasteras SK FK
Blended
Falkenbergs FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vasteras SK FK and Falkenbergs FF in coming into this match?
Vasteras SK FK have gone 4W 6D 7L in their last 17 games (1.06 PPG), while Falkenbergs FF have gone 4W 3D 10L in their last 17 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vasteras SK FK at home or Falkenbergs FF away?
Vasteras SK FK's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vasteras SK FK at home: 1.50 PPG; Falkenbergs FF away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 1 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Vasteras SK FK have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Vasteras SK FK's record when hosting Falkenbergs FF specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Vasteras SK FK
0
Draws
2
Falkenbergs FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vasteras SK FK and Falkenbergs FF?
From 4 meetings on record, Vasteras SK FK have won 2, Falkenbergs FF have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Vasteras SK FK and Falkenbergs FF last play each other?
They last met on 1 November 2025, when Falkenbergs FF 0-1 Vasteras SK FK.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Vasteras SK FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Falkenbergs FF see a goal before the break in 38% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vasteras SK FK 62%, Falkenbergs FF 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Vasteras SK FK and 62% for Falkenbergs FF. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Vasteras SK FK have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vasteras SK FK home games / Falkenbergs FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vasteras SK FK play Falkenbergs FF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Vasteras SK FK's games and 62% of Falkenbergs FF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Vasteras SK FK vs Falkenbergs FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Vasteras SK FK's matches and 62% of Falkenbergs FF's.
Do Vasteras SK FK and Falkenbergs FF tend to score early?
Vasteras SK FK have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Falkenbergs FF in 38% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Falkenbergs FF cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Vasteras SK FK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Falkenbergs FF beat Vasteras SK FK 1-3 at Iver Arena, Regular Season - 18, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vasteras SK FK 1.68 xG and Falkenbergs FF 1.10 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Falkenbergs FF outscored their 1.10 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vasteras SK FK attack 1.00 / defence 1.45 against Falkenbergs FF attack 0.74 / defence 1.55, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vasteras SK FK 51% | Draw 24% | Falkenbergs FF 25%, with Vasteras SK FK to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Falkenbergs FF win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vasteras SK FK 53%, Falkenbergs FF 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vasteras SK FK's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Falkenbergs FF's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Vasteras SK FK 1.06 PPG, Falkenbergs FF 0.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Falkenbergs FF win broke the near-deadlock. Vasteras SK FK (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Falkenbergs FF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.