Trelleborg 1-0 Osters IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Trelleborg at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Trelleborg vs Osters IF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees Osters IF travel to Vångavallen to take on Trelleborg. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 31 August 2021, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Trelleborg stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Trelleborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Trelleborg at Vångavallen this season: 5W 2D 1L from 8 home games — 2.12 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 0.62 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 8 games (38%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Osters IF — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Osters IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Osters IF's away record: 2W 1D 5L from 8 road trips in Superettan this season (0.88 PPG). Away from home they average 0.62 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 8 away games (38%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Trelleborg carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Trelleborg, 0 for Osters IF and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 10 Aug 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Trelleborg trading profile (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games).
Osters IF trading profile (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time; they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Trelleborg 53% versus Osters IF 29%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Trelleborg 35% | Osters IF 24%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trelleborg 1.24 xG and Osters IF 0.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trelleborg attack 0.964 / defence 0.869 | Osters IF attack 0.601 / defence 1.171. League average goals — home 1.103 / away 1.110. Data: 17 Trelleborg games / 17 Osters IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Trelleborg 53% | Draw 30% | Osters IF 17%. Fair-value odds: Trelleborg 1.89 | Draw 3.33 | Osters IF 5.88. Trelleborg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 31% | Total xG 1.82. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.82 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 69% — Osters IF's lower xG of 0.58 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 31%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Trelleborg as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Trelleborg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.82 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 28% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 31% on No. Form rates corroborate: Trelleborg 50% | Osters IF 25% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trelleborg vs Osters IF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Vångavallen • Kick-off: Tuesday 31 Aug 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trelleborg 53% | Draw 30% | Osters IF 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 31% | xG Trelleborg 1.24 / Osters IF 0.58 • Poisson strength factors: Trelleborg attack 0.964 / def 0.869 | Osters IF attack 0.601 / def 1.171 | league avg home 1.103 / away 1.110 • Poisson stance: Trelleborg (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Trelleborg xG
Expected Goals
0.58
Osters IF xG
31%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Trelleborg vs Osters IF kick off?
Trelleborg vs Osters IF kicked off at 18:00 on Tuesday 31 August 2021 at Vångavallen.
What was the final score in Trelleborg vs Osters IF?
Trelleborg 1 - 0 Osters IF.
Where is Trelleborg vs Osters IF being played?
The match is being played at Vångavallen.
What competition is Trelleborg vs Osters IF part of?
Trelleborg vs Osters IF is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Trelleborg vs Osters IF?
Our statistical model gives Trelleborg a 53% chance of winning, Osters IF a 17% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Trelleborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trelleborg vs Osters IF?
Our model estimates a 31% probability that both Trelleborg and Osters IF will score (BTTS).
Will Trelleborg vs Osters IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Trelleborg and Osters IF?
Record (1 meetings): Trelleborg 0W | Draws 1 | Osters IF 0W.
What form are Trelleborg and Osters IF in?
Trelleborg (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. Osters IF (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Trelleborg's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Osters IF's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.24. The same calculation in reverse, Osters IF's attack versus Trelleborg's defence, projects 0.58 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 18.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (17.7%), 1-1 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Trelleborg Win
53%
1.90
30%
3.33
17%
5.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
20.1%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.1%
Draw
2 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Trelleborg xG
Total xG
1.82
0.58
Osters IF xG
1.90
53%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
5.77
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
31%
BTTS Yes
3.19
69%
BTTS No
1.46
Clean Sheet
56%
1.79
29%
3.47
Win to Nil
29%
3.39
5%
20.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.1 | 9.4 | 2.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 20.1 | 11.6 | 3.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.5 | 7.2 | 2.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.2 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Trelleborg vs Osters IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.6%.
How many goals are Trelleborg and Osters IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Trelleborg and 0.58 for Osters IF, a combined total of 1.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Trelleborg vs Osters IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Trelleborg come into this having played 17 games, going 8W 5D 4L for 1.71 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-L. The sample for Trelleborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Osters IF sit at 1.18 PPG from 17 outings (5W 5D 7L), a run that reads W-L-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for Osters IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Trelleborg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.53 PPG clear of Osters IF — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Trelleborg's home form reads 5W 2D 1L across 8 games on their own ground, a 2.12 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.71 PPG overall — Trelleborg are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Osters IF have taken 0.88 points per game from 8 outings (2W 1D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Trelleborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Trelleborg are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Osters IF are on 0.71 scored and 0.88 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Osters IF in 29%.
Defensively: Trelleborg have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games; Osters IF in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trelleborg
Blended
Osters IF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Trelleborg and Osters IF in coming into this match?
Trelleborg have gone 8W 5D 4L in their last 17 games (1.71 PPG), while Osters IF have gone 5W 5D 7L in their last 17 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trelleborg at home or Osters IF away?
Trelleborg's home record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trelleborg at home: 2.12 PPG; Osters IF away: 0.88 PPG.
Have Trelleborg or Osters IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Trelleborg have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Osters IF in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Trelleborg and Osters IF runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 September 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Osters IF have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Apr 2023, when Osters IF won 5-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Trelleborg's record when hosting Osters IF specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Trelleborg
1
Draws
5
Osters IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Trelleborg and Osters IF?
From 8 meetings on record, Trelleborg have won 2, Osters IF have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Trelleborg and Osters IF last play each other?
They last met on 18 September 2024, when Osters IF 4-1 Trelleborg.
Who has won more matches between Trelleborg and Osters IF?
Osters IF have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Trelleborg see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Osters IF tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Trelleborg 50%, Osters IF 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Trelleborg and 25% for Osters IF.
On the defensive side: Trelleborg keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Osters IF in 38%; Osters IF in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trelleborg home games / Osters IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Trelleborg play Osters IF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Trelleborg's recent matches and 25% of Osters IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Trelleborg vs Osters IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Trelleborg's recent games and 25% of Osters IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Trelleborg and Osters IF tend to score early?
Trelleborg have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Osters IF in 25% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Trelleborg edge out Osters IF 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trelleborg beat Osters IF 1-0 at Vångavallen, Regular Season - 18, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trelleborg 1.24 xG and Osters IF 0.58 xG, a combined 1.82. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trelleborg attack 0.96 / defence 0.87 against Osters IF attack 0.60 / defence 1.17, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trelleborg 53% | Draw 30% | Osters IF 17%, with Trelleborg to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 54% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 31% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 29% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trelleborg 35%, Osters IF 24%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Trelleborg's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Osters IF's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 47% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Trelleborg arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.18. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.