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Poisson rates GIF Sundsvall at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this GIF Sundsvall vs Landskrona BoIS encounter.

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Match Analysis

GIF Sundsvall host Landskrona BoIS at NP3 Arena in Superettan, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 20 April 2025 at 14:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Superettan games this season, GIF Sundsvall have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: D W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home at NP3 Arena, GIF Sundsvall have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Landskrona BoIS — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

On the road, Landskrona BoIS have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.

GIF Sundsvall carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 1.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

H2H

The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for GIF Sundsvall, 2 for Landskrona BoIS and 2 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Aug 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Data

GIF Sundsvall trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

Landskrona BoIS trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — GIF Sundsvall 48% versus Landskrona BoIS 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GIF Sundsvall 50% | Landskrona BoIS 58%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects GIF Sundsvall 1.71 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIF Sundsvall attack 1.106 / defence 0.838 | Landskrona BoIS attack 1.182 / defence 1.195. League average goals — home 1.296 / away 1.188. Data: 33 GIF Sundsvall games / 33 Landskrona BoIS games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.

Result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 50% | Draw 24% | Landskrona BoIS 26%. Fair-value odds: GIF Sundsvall 2.00 | Draw 4.17 | Landskrona BoIS 3.85. GIF Sundsvall hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates GIF Sundsvall as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on GIF Sundsvall offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.89 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: GIF Sundsvall 50% | Landskrona BoIS 50%.

The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (33 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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