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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Varbergs BoIS FC cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Landskrona BoIS.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Varbergs BoIS FC beat Landskrona BoIS 4-2 at Paskbergsvallen, Regular Season - 9, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Varbergs BoIS FC 1.59 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.12 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Varbergs BoIS FC beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Landskrona BoIS outscored their 1.12 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.11 / defence 0.75 against Landskrona BoIS attack 1.17 / defence 0.99, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Varbergs BoIS FC 48% | Draw 25% | Landskrona BoIS 27%, with Varbergs BoIS FC to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Varbergs BoIS FC 58%, Landskrona BoIS 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Varbergs BoIS FC's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Landskrona BoIS arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 0.90. Form was overturned, with Varbergs BoIS FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Varbergs BoIS FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Landskrona BoIS (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights