🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Varbergs BoIS FC at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Varbergs BoIS FC vs Landskrona BoIS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees Landskrona BoIS travel to Paskbergsvallen to take on Varbergs BoIS FC. The game is scheduled for Thursday 22 May 2025, 18:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Varbergs BoIS FC stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Varbergs BoIS FC at Paskbergsvallen this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Landskrona BoIS — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

Landskrona BoIS away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Varbergs BoIS FC 1.40 PPG, Landskrona BoIS 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Varbergs BoIS FC, 0 for Landskrona BoIS and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 26 Aug 2024, ended 4–1 with Varbergs BoIS FC winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Varbergs BoIS FC trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

Landskrona BoIS trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Varbergs BoIS FC 55% versus Landskrona BoIS 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Varbergs BoIS FC 58% | Landskrona BoIS 58%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Varbergs BoIS FC 1.59 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.110 / defence 0.748 | Landskrona BoIS attack 1.169 / defence 0.991. League average goals — home 1.446 / away 1.279. Varbergs BoIS FC's defence rating of 0.748 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 38 Varbergs BoIS FC games / 38 Landskrona BoIS games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Varbergs BoIS FC 48% | Draw 25% | Landskrona BoIS 27%. Fair-value odds: Varbergs BoIS FC 2.08 | Draw 4.00 | Landskrona BoIS 3.70. Varbergs BoIS FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Varbergs BoIS FC at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Varbergs BoIS FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.71 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Varbergs BoIS FC 60% | Landskrona BoIS 50% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights