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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as IK brage defy the odds to beat Varbergs BoIS FC 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

IK brage beat Varbergs BoIS FC 1-2 at Paskbergsvallen, Regular Season - 29, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Varbergs BoIS FC 1.44 xG and IK brage 1.20 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. IK brage outscored their 1.20 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.90 / defence 0.95 against IK brage attack 1.06 / defence 1.04, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Varbergs BoIS FC 42% | Draw 27% | IK brage 31%, with Varbergs BoIS FC to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual IK brage win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Varbergs BoIS FC 55%, IK brage 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Varbergs BoIS FC's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

IK brage's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Varbergs BoIS FC 1.41 PPG, IK brage 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IK brage win broke the near-deadlock. Varbergs BoIS FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. IK brage (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights