Varbergs BoIS FC 0-2 GIF Sundsvall – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Varbergs BoIS FC at 41% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Varbergs BoIS FC vs GIF Sundsvall encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Varbergs BoIS FC and GIF Sundsvall meet at Paskbergsvallen in Superettan, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 20 July 2025 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
Varbergs BoIS FC's overall Superettan record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: D L W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Varbergs BoIS FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Varbergs BoIS FC's home record at Paskbergsvallen: 6W 4D 0L from 10 Superettan appearances (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Paskbergsvallen. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Varbergs BoIS FC are significantly better at Paskbergsvallen than their overall form suggests.
GIF Sundsvall have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W D W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for GIF Sundsvall, so this record blends games from this season and last.
GIF Sundsvall's form when playing away from home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for Varbergs BoIS FC against 1.80 for GIF Sundsvall. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record favours Varbergs BoIS FC, who have won 3 of the last 4 meetings against GIF Sundsvall — a 1D 0W return for the visitors.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Aug 2024, ended 3–0 with Varbergs BoIS FC winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Varbergs BoIS FC and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
Varbergs BoIS FC half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
GIF Sundsvall half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Varbergs BoIS FC 61% versus GIF Sundsvall 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Varbergs BoIS FC 57% | GIF Sundsvall 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Varbergs BoIS FC 1.07 xG and GIF Sundsvall 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.044 / defence 0.714 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.870 / defence 0.717. League average goals — home 1.429 / away 1.321. GIF Sundsvall's defence strength of 0.717 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Varbergs BoIS FC's defence rating of 0.714 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 44 Varbergs BoIS FC games / 44 GIF Sundsvall games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Varbergs BoIS FC 41% | Draw 32% | GIF Sundsvall 28%. Fair-value odds: Varbergs BoIS FC 2.44 | Draw 3.12 | GIF Sundsvall 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.89. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.89 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Varbergs BoIS FC at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Varbergs BoIS FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.89 combined xG gives a 29% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 37%. Form rates corroborate: Varbergs BoIS FC 50% | GIF Sundsvall 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Varbergs BoIS FC vs GIF Sundsvall | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Paskbergsvallen • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Jul 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Varbergs BoIS FC 41% | Draw 32% | GIF Sundsvall 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 37% | xG Varbergs BoIS FC 1.07 / GIF Sundsvall 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.044 / def 0.714 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.870 / def 0.717 | league avg home 1.429 / away 1.321 • Poisson stance: Varbergs BoIS FC (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
Expected Goals
0.82
GIF Sundsvall xG
37%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Varbergs BoIS FC vs GIF Sundsvall kick off?
Varbergs BoIS FC vs GIF Sundsvall kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 20 July 2025 at Paskbergsvallen.
What was the final score in Varbergs BoIS FC vs GIF Sundsvall?
Varbergs BoIS FC 0 - 2 GIF Sundsvall.
Where is Varbergs BoIS FC vs GIF Sundsvall being played?
The match is being played at Paskbergsvallen.
What competition is Varbergs BoIS FC vs GIF Sundsvall part of?
Varbergs BoIS FC vs GIF Sundsvall is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Varbergs BoIS FC vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our statistical model gives Varbergs BoIS FC a 41% chance of winning, GIF Sundsvall a 28% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Varbergs BoIS FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Varbergs BoIS FC vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Varbergs BoIS FC and GIF Sundsvall will score (BTTS).
Will Varbergs BoIS FC vs GIF Sundsvall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Varbergs BoIS FC and GIF Sundsvall?
Record (4 meetings): Varbergs BoIS FC 3W | Draws 1 | GIF Sundsvall 0W.
What form are Varbergs BoIS FC and GIF Sundsvall in?
Varbergs BoIS FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-L-D. GIF Sundsvall (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Varbergs BoIS FC's attack at 1.04x the league average against GIF Sundsvall's defence at 0.72x — combine the two and it projects 1.07 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — GIF Sundsvall's attack (0.87x) against Varbergs BoIS FC's defence (0.71x) — and the away total comes out at 0.82.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Varbergs BoIS FC Win
41%
2.45
32%
3.17
28%
3.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.1%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
Total xG
1.89
0.82
GIF Sundsvall xG
2.45
41%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
3.63
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.72
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
44%
2.27
34%
2.91
Win to Nil
18%
5.56
9%
10.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.1 | 12.4 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.2 | 13.3 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 8.6 | 7.1 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Varbergs BoIS FC vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.8%.
How many goals are Varbergs BoIS FC and GIF Sundsvall expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Varbergs BoIS FC and 0.82 for GIF Sundsvall, a combined total of 1.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Varbergs BoIS FC vs GIF Sundsvall?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 44 outings, Varbergs BoIS FC have picked up 1.45 PPG on a 17W 13D 14L record — D-L-W-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Varbergs BoIS FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
GIF Sundsvall's form line: 16W 11D 17L from 44 games, 1.34 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-D. The sample for GIF Sundsvall is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.45 PPG for Varbergs BoIS FC against 1.34 for GIF Sundsvall. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Varbergs BoIS FC have posted 1.76 PPG from 21 outings (10W 7D 4L).
On the road, GIF Sundsvall have gone 8W 4D 9L from 21 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Varbergs BoIS FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Varbergs BoIS FC are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; GIF Sundsvall are on 1.11 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Varbergs BoIS FC have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 44 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Varbergs BoIS FC
Blended
GIF Sundsvall
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Varbergs BoIS FC and GIF Sundsvall in coming into this match?
Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 17W 13D 14L in their last 44 games (1.45 PPG), while GIF Sundsvall have gone 16W 11D 17L in their last 44 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Varbergs BoIS FC at home or GIF Sundsvall away?
Varbergs BoIS FC's home record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Varbergs BoIS FC at home: 1.76 PPG; GIF Sundsvall away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Varbergs BoIS FC or GIF Sundsvall been keeping clean sheets recently?
Varbergs BoIS FC have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, GIF Sundsvall in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Allsvenskan, Superettan all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 24 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Varbergs BoIS FC have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Varbergs BoIS FC won 3-0 on 16 Aug 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against GIF Sundsvall — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
5
Varbergs BoIS FC
1
Draws
1
GIF Sundsvall
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Varbergs BoIS FC and GIF Sundsvall?
From 7 meetings on record, Varbergs BoIS FC have won 5, GIF Sundsvall have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Varbergs BoIS FC and GIF Sundsvall last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Varbergs BoIS FC 1-0 GIF Sundsvall.
Who has won more matches between Varbergs BoIS FC and GIF Sundsvall?
Varbergs BoIS FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Varbergs BoIS FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
GIF Sundsvall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Varbergs BoIS FC 52%, GIF Sundsvall 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Varbergs BoIS FC) and 38% (GIF Sundsvall).
On the defensive side: Varbergs BoIS FC keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; GIF Sundsvall in 33%; GIF Sundsvall in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Varbergs BoIS FC home games / GIF Sundsvall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Varbergs BoIS FC play GIF Sundsvall?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Varbergs BoIS FC's recent matches and 33% of GIF Sundsvall's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Varbergs BoIS FC vs GIF Sundsvall usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Varbergs BoIS FC's recent games and 38% of GIF Sundsvall's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Varbergs BoIS FC and GIF Sundsvall tend to score early?
Varbergs BoIS FC have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, GIF Sundsvall in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
GIF Sundsvall cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Varbergs BoIS FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
GIF Sundsvall beat Varbergs BoIS FC 0-2 at Paskbergsvallen, Regular Season - 15, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Varbergs BoIS FC 1.07 xG and GIF Sundsvall 0.82 xG, a combined 1.89. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Varbergs BoIS FC fell 1.1 short of their projected output. GIF Sundsvall outscored their 0.82 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.04 / defence 0.71 against GIF Sundsvall attack 0.87 / defence 0.72, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Varbergs BoIS FC 41% | Draw 32% | GIF Sundsvall 28%, with Varbergs BoIS FC to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual GIF Sundsvall win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Varbergs BoIS FC 57%, GIF Sundsvall 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Varbergs BoIS FC's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Varbergs BoIS FC 1.45 PPG, GIF Sundsvall 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the GIF Sundsvall win broke the near-deadlock. Varbergs BoIS FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.52 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual. GIF Sundsvall (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.81 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.