United Nordic 1-0 IK brage – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates IK brage at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this United Nordic vs IK brage fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
IK brage make the trip to Sodertalje Fotbollsarena to face United Nordic in Superettan, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Saturday 23 May 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
IK brage's overall Superettan record this term: 4W 0D 6L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
IK brage's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects United Nordic 1.32 xG and IK brage 1.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: United Nordic attack 1.119 / defence 1.289 | IK brage attack 0.987 / defence 0.776. League average goals — home 1.518 / away 1.451. IK brage's defence strength of 0.776 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 8 United Nordic games / 38 IK brage games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: United Nordic 27% | Draw 23% | IK brage 50%. Fair-value odds: United Nordic 3.70 | Draw 4.35 | IK brage 2.00. IK brage hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.32 / 1.84) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, IK brage are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on IK brage if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.16 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: United Nordic vs IK brage | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Sodertalje Fotbollsarena • Kick-off: Saturday 23 May 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: United Nordic 27% | Draw 23% | IK brage 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 62% | xG United Nordic 1.32 / IK brage 1.84 • Poisson strength factors: United Nordic attack 1.119 / def 1.289 | IK brage attack 0.987 / def 0.776 | league avg home 1.518 / away 1.451 • Poisson stance: IK brage (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
United Nordic xG
Expected Goals
1.84
IK brage xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does United Nordic vs IK brage kick off?
United Nordic vs IK brage kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 23 May 2026 at Sodertalje Fotbollsarena.
What was the final score in United Nordic vs IK brage?
United Nordic 1 - 0 IK brage.
Where is United Nordic vs IK brage being played?
The match is being played at Sodertalje Fotbollsarena.
What competition is United Nordic vs IK brage part of?
United Nordic vs IK brage is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win United Nordic vs IK brage?
Our statistical model gives United Nordic a 27% chance of winning, IK brage a 50% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making IK brage the favourite.
Will both teams score in United Nordic vs IK brage?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both United Nordic and IK brage will score (BTTS).
Will United Nordic vs IK brage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between United Nordic and IK brage?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are United Nordic and IK brage in?
IK brage (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-W-W-W. IK brage away split: 1.30 PPG from 10 | GF 1.80 / GA 1.90 | CS 1.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates United Nordic's attack at 1.12x the league average against IK brage's defence at 0.78x — combine the two and it projects 1.32 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — IK brage's attack (0.99x) against United Nordic's defence (1.29x) — and the away total comes out at 1.84.
These ratings are built from 8/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
IK brage Win
27%
3.64
23%
4.40
50%
2.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
0 – 1
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
United Nordic xG
Total xG
3.16
1.84
IK brage xG
3.64
27%
Home win
4.40
23%
Draw
2.01
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.61
Clean Sheet
16%
6.33
27%
3.74
Win to Nil
4%
23.06
13%
7.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 7.8 | 7.2 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 10.3 | 9.5 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 6.8 | 6.3 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for United Nordic vs IK brage?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are United Nordic and IK brage expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for United Nordic and 1.84 for IK brage, a combined total of 3.16.
How confident is the prediction model for United Nordic vs IK brage?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
United Nordic
Pre-Season
IK brage
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2026 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 23 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 2 Meetings
2
United Nordic
0
Draws
0
IK brage
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between United Nordic and IK brage?
From 2 meetings on record, United Nordic have won 2, IK brage have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did United Nordic and IK brage last play each other?
They last met on 23 August 2026, when IK brage 1-2 United Nordic.
Who has won more matches between United Nordic and IK brage?
United Nordic have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = United Nordic home games / IK brage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as United Nordic defy the odds to beat IK brage 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
United Nordic beat IK brage 1-0 at Sodertalje Fotbollsarena, Regular Season - 9, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting United Nordic 1.32 xG and IK brage 1.84 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. IK brage landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of United Nordic attack 1.12 / defence 1.29 against IK brage attack 0.99 / defence 0.78, drawn from 8/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it United Nordic 27% | Draw 23% | IK brage 50%, with IK brage to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual United Nordic win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.