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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Vasteras SK FK edge out Umeå FC 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Vasteras SK FK beat Umeå FC 1-2 at Umea Energi Arena, Regular Season - 24, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Umeå FC 0.98 xG and Vasteras SK FK 1.66 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Umeå FC attack 0.57 / defence 1.32 against Vasteras SK FK attack 1.07 / defence 1.13, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Umeå FC 22% | Draw 25% | Vasteras SK FK 53%, with Vasteras SK FK to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Umeå FC 44%, Vasteras SK FK 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Umeå FC's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.

Vasteras SK FK's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Vasteras SK FK arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 0.39. That form edge translated into the three points.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights