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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Umeå FC and Varbergs BoIS FC share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Umeå FC and Varbergs BoIS FC finished level at 2-2 at Umea Energi Arena, Regular Season - 28, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Umeå FC 0.95 xG and Varbergs BoIS FC 1.49 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Umeå FC beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Umeå FC attack 0.60 / defence 1.18 against Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.08 / defence 1.02, drawn from 27/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Umeå FC 24% | Draw 27% | Varbergs BoIS FC 49%, with Varbergs BoIS FC to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Umeå FC 48%, Varbergs BoIS FC 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Umeå FC's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Varbergs BoIS FC's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Varbergs BoIS FC arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 0.56. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Umeå FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.69 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights