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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Umeå FC and Ostersunds FK share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Umeå FC and Ostersunds FK finished level at 2-2 at Umea Energi Arena, Regular Season - 3, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Umeå FC 0.80 xG and Ostersunds FK 1.28 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Umeå FC beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Umeå FC attack 0.71 / defence 1.12 against Ostersunds FK attack 0.94 / defence 0.96, drawn from 2/32 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Umeå FC 23% | Draw 29% | Ostersunds FK 48%, with Ostersunds FK to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights