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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Umeå FC and Orgryte IS share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Umea Energi Arena, Regular Season - 10, as Umeå FC and Orgryte IS drew 3-3 in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Umeå FC 0.84 xG and Orgryte IS 1.55 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Umeå FC beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Orgryte IS outscored their 1.55 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Umeå FC attack 0.62 / defence 1.33 against Orgryte IS attack 0.92 / defence 0.94, drawn from 9/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Umeå FC 20% | Draw 26% | Orgryte IS 54%, with Orgryte IS to win its most likely call at 54%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights