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Poisson model rates Orgryte IS at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Umeå FC vs Orgryte IS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis & Preview

A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Orgryte IS travel to Umea Energi Arena to take on Umeå FC. The game is scheduled for Monday 26 May 2025, 18:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Orgryte IS — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.

Orgryte IS's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Umeå FC 0.84 xG and Orgryte IS 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Umeå FC attack 0.618 / defence 1.332 | Orgryte IS attack 0.918 / defence 0.939. League average goals — home 1.446 / away 1.270. Umeå FC's attack strength of 0.618 is below the league average — the 0.84 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 9 Umeå FC games / 39 Orgryte IS games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Umeå FC 20% | Draw 26% | Orgryte IS 54%. Fair-value odds: Umeå FC 5.00 | Draw 3.85 | Orgryte IS 1.85. Orgryte IS hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Orgryte IS are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Orgryte IS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.39 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

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