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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Kalmar FF edge out Umeå FC 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Kalmar FF beat Umeå FC 0-1 at Umea Energi Arena, Regular Season - 19, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Umeå FC 0.76 xG and Kalmar FF 1.50 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Umeå FC attack 0.63 / defence 1.27 against Kalmar FF attack 0.91 / defence 0.86, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Umeå FC 18% | Draw 27% | Kalmar FF 54%, with Kalmar FF to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Umeå FC 44%, Kalmar FF 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Umeå FC's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Kalmar FF's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Kalmar FF arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 0.44. Form held, and they took the win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights