🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as IK brage edge out Umeå FC 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

IK brage beat Umeå FC 0-1 at Umea Energi Arena, Regular Season - 5, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Umeå FC 1.01 xG and IK brage 1.45 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Umeå FC fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Umeå FC attack 0.82 / defence 1.24 against IK brage attack 1.06 / defence 0.92, drawn from 4/34 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Umeå FC 26% | Draw 26% | IK brage 47%, with IK brage to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights