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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Falkenbergs FF cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Umeå FC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Falkenbergs FF beat Umeå FC 0-2 at Umea Energi Arena, Regular Season - 17, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Umeå FC 1.23 xG and Falkenbergs FF 1.44 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Umeå FC fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Umeå FC attack 0.71 / defence 1.23 against Falkenbergs FF attack 0.87 / defence 1.20, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Umeå FC 32% | Draw 27% | Falkenbergs FF 41%, with Falkenbergs FF to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Umeå FC 50%, Falkenbergs FF 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Umeå FC's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Falkenbergs FF's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Falkenbergs FF arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.31. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Umeå FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward. Falkenbergs FF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights