Trelleborg 1-2 Sandviken – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Trelleborg at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Trelleborg vs Sandviken fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Trelleborg and Sandviken meet at Vångavallen in Superettan, Regular Season - 22. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 14 September 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Trelleborg's overall Superettan record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Trelleborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Trelleborg have posted 2W 4D 4L at Vångavallen — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Vångavallen. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Sandviken (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Superettan outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Sandviken, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sandviken's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Trelleborg, 2 for Sandviken and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Apr 2025, ended 0–2 with Sandviken winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Trelleborg — key trading statistics (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Sandviken — key trading statistics (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Trelleborg 35% versus Sandviken 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trelleborg 41% | Sandviken 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trelleborg 1.16 xG and Sandviken 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trelleborg attack 0.685 / defence 0.828 | Sandviken attack 0.789 / defence 1.151. League average goals — home 1.465 / away 1.205. Trelleborg's attack strength of 0.685 is below the league average — the 1.16 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 51 Trelleborg games / 51 Sandviken games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Trelleborg 44% | Draw 32% | Sandviken 24%. Fair-value odds: Trelleborg 2.27 | Draw 3.12 | Sandviken 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.94. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.94 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Trelleborg at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Trelleborg if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.94 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 31% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 38% on No. Form rates corroborate: Trelleborg 10% | Sandviken 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trelleborg vs Sandviken | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Vångavallen • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Sep 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trelleborg 44% | Draw 32% | Sandviken 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 38% | xG Trelleborg 1.16 / Sandviken 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Trelleborg attack 0.685 / def 0.828 | Sandviken attack 0.789 / def 1.151 | league avg home 1.465 / away 1.205 • Poisson stance: Trelleborg (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Trelleborg xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Sandviken xG
38%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Trelleborg vs Sandviken kick off?
Trelleborg vs Sandviken kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 14 September 2025 at Vångavallen.
What was the final score in Trelleborg vs Sandviken?
Trelleborg 1 - 2 Sandviken.
Where is Trelleborg vs Sandviken being played?
The match is being played at Vångavallen.
What competition is Trelleborg vs Sandviken part of?
Trelleborg vs Sandviken is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Trelleborg vs Sandviken?
Our statistical model gives Trelleborg a 44% chance of winning, Sandviken a 24% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Trelleborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trelleborg vs Sandviken?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Trelleborg and Sandviken will score (BTTS).
Will Trelleborg vs Sandviken have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Trelleborg and Sandviken?
Record (3 meetings): Trelleborg 1W | Draws 0 | Sandviken 2W.
What form are Trelleborg and Sandviken in?
Trelleborg (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Sandviken (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Trelleborg's attacking strength (0.69x league average) is weighed against Sandviken's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.16. Flip it around — Sandviken's attack (0.79x) against Trelleborg's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 0.79.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (14.9%), 1-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Trelleborg Win
44%
2.29
32%
3.10
24%
4.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.3%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Trelleborg xG
Total xG
1.94
0.79
Sandviken xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
4.13
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.62
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
45%
2.20
31%
3.18
Win to Nil
20%
5.05
8%
13.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.3 | 11.3 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.5 | 13.0 | 5.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.6 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.7 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Trelleborg vs Sandviken?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.0%.
How many goals are Trelleborg and Sandviken expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Trelleborg and 0.79 for Sandviken, a combined total of 1.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Trelleborg vs Sandviken?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Trelleborg's recent record stands at 16W 11D 24L from 51 games, a 1.16 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Trelleborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sandviken, meanwhile, have gone 20W 10D 21L across 51 games — 1.37 PPG, with L-L-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Sandviken is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.16 PPG for Trelleborg against 1.37 for Sandviken. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Trelleborg have managed 9W 8D 8L from 25 games — 1.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sandviken's away record stands at 6W 7D 12L across 25 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Trelleborg are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Sandviken are on 1.41 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Last 51 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trelleborg
Blended
Sandviken
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Trelleborg and Sandviken in coming into this match?
Trelleborg have gone 16W 11D 24L in their last 51 games (1.16 PPG), while Sandviken have gone 20W 10D 21L in their last 51 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trelleborg at home or Sandviken away?
Trelleborg's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trelleborg at home: 1.40 PPG; Sandviken away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Trelleborg or Sandviken been keeping clean sheets recently?
Trelleborg have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Sandviken in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 14 September 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Sandviken have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sandviken won 4-0 on 25 Aug 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Trelleborg have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Sandviken — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Trelleborg
0
Draws
3
Sandviken
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Trelleborg and Sandviken?
From 4 meetings on record, Trelleborg have won 1, Sandviken have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Trelleborg and Sandviken last play each other?
They last met on 14 September 2025, when Trelleborg 1-2 Sandviken.
Who has won more matches between Trelleborg and Sandviken?
Sandviken have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Trelleborg see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Sandviken are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Trelleborg 36%, Sandviken 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Trelleborg) and 64% (Sandviken).
On the defensive side: Trelleborg keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Trelleborg have failed to score in 36% of games; Sandviken in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trelleborg home games / Sandviken away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Trelleborg play Sandviken?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Trelleborg's recent matches and 56% of Sandviken's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Trelleborg vs Sandviken usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Trelleborg's recent games and 64% of Sandviken's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Trelleborg and Sandviken tend to score early?
Trelleborg have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, Sandviken in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sandviken defy the odds to beat Trelleborg 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sandviken beat Trelleborg 1-2 at Vångavallen, Regular Season - 22, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trelleborg 1.16 xG and Sandviken 0.79 xG, a combined 1.94. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Sandviken outscored their 0.79 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trelleborg attack 0.69 / defence 0.83 against Sandviken attack 0.79 / defence 1.15, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trelleborg 44% | Draw 32% | Sandviken 24%, with Trelleborg to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a Sandviken win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trelleborg 41%, Sandviken 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Trelleborg's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Sandviken's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Trelleborg 1.16 PPG, Sandviken 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sandviken win broke the near-deadlock. Trelleborg (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sandviken (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.84 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.