Trelleborg 1-0 Orgryte IS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Orgryte IS at 44% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Trelleborg vs Orgryte IS encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Trelleborg host Orgryte IS at Vångavallen in Superettan (matchday 26). Kick-off is Sunday 6 October 2024 at 13:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Trelleborg — last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W W L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
In front of their own supporters, Trelleborg have posted 4W 4D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Orgryte IS have recorded 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Orgryte IS's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Orgryte IS — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 70% of Trelleborg's games and 60% of Orgryte IS's (from Trelleborg's last 10 home games and Orgryte IS's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of Trelleborg: 5 wins from 7 H2H matches against 0 for Orgryte IS, with 2 draws.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 22 May 2024, ended Trelleborg 2–1 Orgryte IS — a Trelleborg win.
The head-to-head data gives Trelleborg an edge — 5 wins from 7 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
In-Play Profile
Trelleborg in-play tendencies (last 55 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Orgryte IS in-play tendencies (last 55 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 41%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Trelleborg 54% versus Orgryte IS 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trelleborg 53% | Orgryte IS 56%). Note also that Orgryte IS surrender HT leads in 41% of cases while Trelleborg recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trelleborg 1.19 xG and Orgryte IS 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trelleborg attack 0.926 / defence 1.127 | Orgryte IS attack 1.132 / defence 0.925. League average goals — home 1.384 / away 1.182. Data: built from Trelleborg's last 55 games and Orgryte IS's last 55.
Result probabilities: Trelleborg 29% | Draw 27% | Orgryte IS 44%. Fair-value odds: Trelleborg 3.46 | Draw 3.65 | Orgryte IS 2.29. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
Trelleborg have the better head-to-head record in our data (5 wins to 0), yet Orgryte IS are the in-form side right now — head-to-head edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, Orgryte IS are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Orgryte IS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.69 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Trelleborg's last 10 home games and Orgryte IS's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.7 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Trelleborg 70% (last 10 home games) | Orgryte IS 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trelleborg vs Orgryte IS | Competition: Superettan, matchday 26 | Venue: Vångavallen • Kick-off: Sunday 6 October 2024 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trelleborg 29% | Draw 27% | Orgryte IS 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Trelleborg 1.19 / Orgryte IS 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Trelleborg attack 0.926 / def 1.127 | Orgryte IS attack 1.132 / def 0.925 | league avg home 1.384 / away 1.182 • Poisson stance: Orgryte IS (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Trelleborg xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Orgryte IS xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Trelleborg vs Orgryte IS FAQs
What time does Trelleborg vs Orgryte IS kick off?
Trelleborg vs Orgryte IS kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Sunday 6 October 2024 at Vångavallen.
What was the final score in Trelleborg vs Orgryte IS?
Trelleborg 1 - 0 Orgryte IS.
Where is Trelleborg vs Orgryte IS being played?
The match is being played at Vångavallen.
What competition is Trelleborg vs Orgryte IS part of?
Trelleborg vs Orgryte IS is a Superettan fixture (matchday 26) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Trelleborg vs Orgryte IS?
Our statistical model gives Trelleborg a 29% chance of winning, Orgryte IS a 44% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Orgryte IS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trelleborg vs Orgryte IS?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Trelleborg and Orgryte IS will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Trelleborg vs Orgryte IS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Trelleborg's attack at 0.93x the league average against Orgryte IS's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.19 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Orgryte IS's attack versus Trelleborg's defence, projects 1.51 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Trelleborg's last 55 games and Orgryte IS's last 55 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 0-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Orgryte IS Win
29%
3.46
27%
3.65
44%
2.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Trelleborg xG
Total xG
2.69
1.51
Orgryte IS xG
3.46
29%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
2.29
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
22%
4.51
31%
3.27
Win to Nil
6%
15.62
13%
7.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 10.2 | 7.7 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 12.1 | 9.1 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.2 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Trelleborg vs Orgryte IS Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Trelleborg vs Orgryte IS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Trelleborg and Orgryte IS expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Trelleborg and 1.51 for Orgryte IS, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Trelleborg vs Orgryte IS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 55 outings, Trelleborg have picked up 1.31 PPG on a 19W 15D 21L record — W-W-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Orgryte IS's form line: 19W 13D 23L from 55 games, 1.27 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Trelleborg on 1.31 PPG, Orgryte IS on 1.27. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Trelleborg have posted 1.48 PPG from their last 27 home games (11W 7D 9L).
On the road, Orgryte IS have gone 10W 5D 12L from their last 27 away games — 1.30 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Trelleborg are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Orgryte IS are on 1.35 scored and 1.49 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Orgryte IS in 60%.
Last 55 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trelleborg
Blended
Orgryte IS
Blended
Trelleborg (Home) vs Orgryte IS (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Trelleborg
Blended
Orgryte IS
Blended
❓ Trelleborg vs Orgryte IS Form FAQs
What form are Trelleborg and Orgryte IS in coming into this match?
Trelleborg have gone 19W 15D 21L in their last 55 games (1.31 PPG), while Orgryte IS have gone 19W 13D 23L in their last 55 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trelleborg at home or Orgryte IS away?
Trelleborg's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trelleborg at home: 1.48 PPG; Orgryte IS away: 1.30 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to April 2021. All of them came in Superettan. The most recent in our data was on 25 September 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Orgryte IS have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Trelleborg's record when hosting Orgryte IS specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Trelleborg
2
Draws
2
Orgryte IS
Recent Meetings
❓ Trelleborg vs Orgryte IS H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Trelleborg and Orgryte IS?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Trelleborg have won 6, Orgryte IS have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Trelleborg and Orgryte IS last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 September 2025: Trelleborg 0-2 Orgryte IS.
Who has won more matches between Trelleborg and Orgryte IS?
Trelleborg have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Trelleborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 57% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Orgryte IS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Trelleborg 52%, Orgryte IS 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Trelleborg) and 44% (Orgryte IS).
On the defensive side: Trelleborg keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Orgryte IS in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trelleborg home games / Orgryte IS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Trelleborg vs Orgryte IS Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Trelleborg and Orgryte IS matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Trelleborg's recent matches and 52% of Orgryte IS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Trelleborg and Orgryte IS matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Trelleborg's recent games and 44% of Orgryte IS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Trelleborg and Orgryte IS matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Trelleborg's recent matches and 74% of Orgryte IS's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Trelleborg defy the odds to beat Orgryte IS 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trelleborg beat Orgryte IS 1-0 at Vångavallen, Regular Season - 26, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trelleborg 1.19 xG and Orgryte IS 1.51 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Orgryte IS landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trelleborg attack 0.93 / defence 1.13 against Orgryte IS attack 1.13 / defence 0.93, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trelleborg 29% | Draw 27% | Orgryte IS 44%, with Orgryte IS to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Trelleborg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trelleborg 53%, Orgryte IS 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Trelleborg's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Orgryte IS's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Trelleborg 1.31 PPG, Orgryte IS 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Trelleborg win broke the near-deadlock. Trelleborg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.59 average — tighter than their form line. Orgryte IS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.