🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Stalemate at Trelleborg's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Vångavallen, Regular Season - 14, as Trelleborg and Oddevold drew 0-0 in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Trelleborg 0.91 xG and Oddevold 1.50 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Trelleborg fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Oddevold landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trelleborg attack 0.87 / defence 0.88 against Oddevold attack 1.27 / defence 0.71, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Trelleborg 23% | Draw 26% | Oddevold 51%, with Oddevold to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trelleborg 43%, Oddevold 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Trelleborg's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Oddevold's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Trelleborg 1.40 PPG, Oddevold 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Trelleborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line. Oddevold (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights