🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Oddevold at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Trelleborg vs Oddevold fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 14 as Trelleborg welcome Oddevold to Vångavallen. Kick-off is set for Saturday 28 June 2025 at 14:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Trelleborg — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W L W L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

At home at Vångavallen, Trelleborg have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Across all Superettan games this season, Oddevold have recorded 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

On the road, Oddevold have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Trelleborg at 1.60 PPG versus Oddevold's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Trelleborg have won 1, Oddevold 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 9 Nov 2024, ended 3–0 with Trelleborg winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Trelleborg trading profile (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).

Oddevold trading profile (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Trelleborg 43% versus Oddevold 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trelleborg 43% | Oddevold 63%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Trelleborg 0.91 xG and Oddevold 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trelleborg attack 0.872 / defence 0.880 | Oddevold attack 1.272 / defence 0.707. League average goals — home 1.467 / away 1.344. Oddevold's defence strength of 0.707 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Oddevold have an above-average attack strength of 1.272 — the away xG of 1.50 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 43 Trelleborg games / 43 Oddevold games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Trelleborg 23% | Draw 26% | Oddevold 51%. Fair-value odds: Trelleborg 4.35 | Draw 3.85 | Oddevold 1.96. Oddevold hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Oddevold at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Oddevold offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.41 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates are neutral: Trelleborg 50% | Oddevold 60%.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights