Trelleborg 0-0 Oddevold – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Oddevold at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Trelleborg vs Oddevold fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 14 as Trelleborg welcome Oddevold to Vångavallen. Kick-off is set for Saturday 28 June 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Trelleborg — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W L W L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home at Vångavallen, Trelleborg have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Superettan games this season, Oddevold have recorded 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Oddevold have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Trelleborg at 1.60 PPG versus Oddevold's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Trelleborg have won 1, Oddevold 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 9 Nov 2024, ended 3–0 with Trelleborg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Trelleborg trading profile (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Oddevold trading profile (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Trelleborg 43% versus Oddevold 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trelleborg 43% | Oddevold 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trelleborg 0.91 xG and Oddevold 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trelleborg attack 0.872 / defence 0.880 | Oddevold attack 1.272 / defence 0.707. League average goals — home 1.467 / away 1.344. Oddevold's defence strength of 0.707 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Oddevold have an above-average attack strength of 1.272 — the away xG of 1.50 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 43 Trelleborg games / 43 Oddevold games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Trelleborg 23% | Draw 26% | Oddevold 51%. Fair-value odds: Trelleborg 4.35 | Draw 3.85 | Oddevold 1.96. Oddevold hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Oddevold at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Oddevold offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.41 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates are neutral: Trelleborg 50% | Oddevold 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trelleborg vs Oddevold | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Vångavallen • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Jun 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trelleborg 23% | Draw 26% | Oddevold 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 46% | xG Trelleborg 0.91 / Oddevold 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Trelleborg attack 0.872 / def 0.880 | Oddevold attack 1.272 / def 0.707 | league avg home 1.467 / away 1.344 • Poisson stance: Oddevold (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Trelleborg xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Oddevold xG
46%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Trelleborg vs Oddevold kick off?
Trelleborg vs Oddevold kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 28 June 2025 at Vångavallen.
What was the final score in Trelleborg vs Oddevold?
Trelleborg 0 - 0 Oddevold.
Where is Trelleborg vs Oddevold being played?
The match is being played at Vångavallen.
What competition is Trelleborg vs Oddevold part of?
Trelleborg vs Oddevold is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Trelleborg vs Oddevold?
Our statistical model gives Trelleborg a 23% chance of winning, Oddevold a 51% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Oddevold the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trelleborg vs Oddevold?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Trelleborg and Oddevold will score (BTTS).
Will Trelleborg vs Oddevold have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Trelleborg and Oddevold?
Record (2 meetings): Trelleborg 1W | Draws 0 | Oddevold 1W.
What form are Trelleborg and Oddevold in?
Trelleborg (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Oddevold (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Trelleborg's attack rating (0.87) and Oddevold's defence rating (0.71), the model arrives at 0.91 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Oddevold's attack versus Trelleborg's defence, projects 1.50 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.9%), 0-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Oddevold Win
23%
4.41
26%
3.84
51%
1.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
0 – 2
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Trelleborg xG
Total xG
2.41
1.50
Oddevold xG
4.41
23%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
1.95
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
22%
4.50
40%
2.47
Win to Nil
5%
19.87
21%
4.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 13.5 | 10.2 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 12.2 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 5.5 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Trelleborg vs Oddevold?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Trelleborg and Oddevold expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Trelleborg and 1.50 for Oddevold, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Trelleborg vs Oddevold?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Trelleborg come into this having played 30 games, going 12W 6D 12L for 1.40 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-W.
On the other side, Oddevold sit at 1.20 PPG from 30 outings (8W 12D 10L), a run that reads D-D-D-W-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Trelleborg on 1.40 PPG, Oddevold on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Trelleborg's home form reads 7W 4D 4L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Oddevold have taken 1.13 points per game from 15 outings (4W 5D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Trelleborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Trelleborg are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Oddevold are on 1.13 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Oddevold in 60%.
Last 30 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trelleborg
Current Season
Oddevold
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Trelleborg and Oddevold in coming into this match?
Trelleborg have gone 12W 6D 12L in their last 30 games (1.40 PPG), while Oddevold have gone 8W 12D 10L in their last 30 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trelleborg at home or Oddevold away?
Trelleborg's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trelleborg at home: 1.67 PPG; Oddevold away: 1.13 PPG.
Have Trelleborg or Oddevold been keeping clean sheets recently?
Trelleborg have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Oddevold in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Trelleborg and Oddevold runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 August 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Nov 2024, when Trelleborg won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Trelleborg's record when hosting Oddevold specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Trelleborg
1
Draws
2
Oddevold
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Trelleborg and Oddevold?
From 4 meetings on record, Trelleborg have won 1, Oddevold have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Trelleborg and Oddevold last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2025, when Oddevold 3-2 Trelleborg.
Who has won more matches between Trelleborg and Oddevold?
Oddevold have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Trelleborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Oddevold are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Trelleborg 53%, Oddevold 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Trelleborg) and 67% (Oddevold).
On the defensive side: Trelleborg keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Oddevold in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trelleborg home games / Oddevold away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Trelleborg play Oddevold?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Trelleborg's games and 60% of Oddevold's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Trelleborg vs Oddevold usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Trelleborg's recent games and 67% of Oddevold's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Trelleborg and Oddevold tend to score early?
Trelleborg have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Oddevold in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Trelleborg's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Vångavallen, Regular Season - 14, as Trelleborg and Oddevold drew 0-0 in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trelleborg 0.91 xG and Oddevold 1.50 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Trelleborg fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Oddevold landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trelleborg attack 0.87 / defence 0.88 against Oddevold attack 1.27 / defence 0.71, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trelleborg 23% | Draw 26% | Oddevold 51%, with Oddevold to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trelleborg 43%, Oddevold 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Trelleborg's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Oddevold's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Trelleborg 1.40 PPG, Oddevold 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Trelleborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line. Oddevold (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.