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Shock result as Trelleborg defy the odds to beat Landskrona BoIS 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Trelleborg beat Landskrona BoIS 1-0 at Vångavallen, Regular Season - 20, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Trelleborg 0.92 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.15 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Landskrona BoIS landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trelleborg attack 0.67 / defence 0.87 against Landskrona BoIS attack 1.03 / defence 1.00, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Trelleborg 28% | Draw 32% | Landskrona BoIS 40%, with Landskrona BoIS to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Trelleborg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trelleborg 41%, Landskrona BoIS 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Trelleborg's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.

Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Trelleborg 1.14 PPG, Landskrona BoIS 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Trelleborg win broke the near-deadlock. Trelleborg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line. Landskrona BoIS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights