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Poisson model favours Landskrona BoIS (40%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Trelleborg face Landskrona BoIS.

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Analysis & Preview

A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Landskrona BoIS travel to Vångavallen to take on Trelleborg. The game is scheduled for Monday 25 August 2025, 18:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Trelleborg stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Superettan matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Trelleborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Trelleborg have posted 1W 4D 5L at Vångavallen — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Across all Superettan games this season, Landskrona BoIS have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Landskrona BoIS, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Landskrona BoIS have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Landskrona BoIS — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

H2H Record

Landskrona BoIS have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the last 9 encounters against Trelleborg's 1 victories.

The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Jul 2025, ended 2–1 with Trelleborg winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Landskrona BoIS have won 5 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

In-Play Profile

Trelleborg in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.

Landskrona BoIS in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Trelleborg 35% versus Landskrona BoIS 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trelleborg 41% | Landskrona BoIS 55%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Trelleborg 0.92 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trelleborg attack 0.665 / defence 0.874 | Landskrona BoIS attack 1.027 / defence 1.001. League average goals — home 1.373 / away 1.281. Trelleborg's attack strength of 0.665 is below the league average — the 0.92 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 49 Trelleborg games / 49 Landskrona BoIS games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Trelleborg 28% | Draw 32% | Landskrona BoIS 40%. Fair-value odds: Trelleborg 3.57 | Draw 3.12 | Landskrona BoIS 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Landskrona BoIS are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Landskrona BoIS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.06 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: Trelleborg 10% | Landskrona BoIS 60% BTTS from recent games.

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