Trelleborg 0-0 Kalmar FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Trelleborg at 35%, yet in-form Kalmar FF provide a compelling counter-argument — this Trelleborg vs Kalmar FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Trelleborg host Kalmar FF at Vångavallen in Superettan, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 2 August 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Trelleborg — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: D L D W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Trelleborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Trelleborg's home record at Vångavallen: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Superettan appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Vångavallen. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Superettan games this season, Kalmar FF have recorded 4W 5D 1L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L D D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Kalmar FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Superettan this season, Kalmar FF have posted 3W 7D 0L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Kalmar FF — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Trelleborg have won 0, Kalmar FF 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 May 2025, ended 0–2 with Kalmar FF winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Trelleborg in-play tendencies (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Kalmar FF in-play tendencies (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Trelleborg 35% versus Kalmar FF 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trelleborg 41% | Kalmar FF 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trelleborg 1.12 xG and Kalmar FF 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trelleborg attack 0.842 / defence 0.818 | Kalmar FF attack 1.017 / defence 0.931. League average goals — home 1.425 / away 1.308. Data: 46 Trelleborg games / 16 Kalmar FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Trelleborg 35% | Draw 31% | Kalmar FF 34%. Fair-value odds: Trelleborg 2.86 | Draw 3.23 | Kalmar FF 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Trelleborg are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Kalmar FF (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Trelleborg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.21 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: Trelleborg 10% | Kalmar FF 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trelleborg vs Kalmar FF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Vångavallen • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Aug 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trelleborg 35% | Draw 31% | Kalmar FF 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG Trelleborg 1.12 / Kalmar FF 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Trelleborg attack 0.842 / def 0.818 | Kalmar FF attack 1.017 / def 0.931 | league avg home 1.425 / away 1.308 • Poisson stance: Trelleborg (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Trelleborg xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Kalmar FF xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Trelleborg vs Kalmar FF kick off?
Trelleborg vs Kalmar FF kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 2 August 2025 at Vångavallen.
What was the final score in Trelleborg vs Kalmar FF?
Trelleborg 0 - 0 Kalmar FF.
Where is Trelleborg vs Kalmar FF being played?
The match is being played at Vångavallen.
What competition is Trelleborg vs Kalmar FF part of?
Trelleborg vs Kalmar FF is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Trelleborg vs Kalmar FF?
Our statistical model gives Trelleborg a 35% chance of winning, Kalmar FF a 34% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Trelleborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trelleborg vs Kalmar FF?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Trelleborg and Kalmar FF will score (BTTS).
Will Trelleborg vs Kalmar FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Trelleborg and Kalmar FF?
Record (1 meetings): Trelleborg 0W | Draws 0 | Kalmar FF 1W.
What form are Trelleborg and Kalmar FF in?
Trelleborg (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-D-W-L. Kalmar FF (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Trelleborg's attack rating (0.84) and Kalmar FF's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.12 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Kalmar FF's attack versus Trelleborg's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.8%), 1-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Trelleborg Win
35%
2.82
31%
3.27
34%
2.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Trelleborg xG
Total xG
2.21
1.09
Kalmar FF xG
2.82
35%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
2.94
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
12%
8.37
11%
8.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 12.0 | 6.5 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.4 | 7.3 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 7.5 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Trelleborg vs Kalmar FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Trelleborg and Kalmar FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Trelleborg and 1.09 for Kalmar FF, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Trelleborg vs Kalmar FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Trelleborg come into this having played 46 games, going 15W 10D 21L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-W-L. The sample for Trelleborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Kalmar FF sit at 1.33 PPG from 46 outings (16W 13D 17L), a run that reads W-L-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for Kalmar FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Trelleborg on 1.20 PPG, Kalmar FF on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Trelleborg's home form reads 8W 7D 7L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.41 PPG return.
Away from home, Kalmar FF have taken 1.27 points per game from 22 outings (6W 10D 6L).
The Goals Picture
Trelleborg are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Kalmar FF are on 1.43 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kalmar FF in 63%.
Last 46 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trelleborg
Blended
Kalmar FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Trelleborg and Kalmar FF in coming into this match?
Trelleborg have gone 15W 10D 21L in their last 46 games (1.20 PPG), while Kalmar FF have gone 16W 13D 17L in their last 46 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trelleborg at home or Kalmar FF away?
Trelleborg's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trelleborg at home: 1.41 PPG; Kalmar FF away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Trelleborg or Kalmar FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Trelleborg have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Kalmar FF in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Trelleborg and Kalmar FF runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 August 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Trelleborg
1
Draws
1
Kalmar FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Trelleborg and Kalmar FF?
From 2 meetings on record, Trelleborg have won 0, Kalmar FF have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Trelleborg and Kalmar FF last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2025, when Trelleborg 0-0 Kalmar FF.
Who has won more matches between Trelleborg and Kalmar FF?
Kalmar FF have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Trelleborg see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Kalmar FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Trelleborg 41%, Kalmar FF 73% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Trelleborg) and 59% (Kalmar FF).
On the defensive side: Trelleborg keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Trelleborg have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trelleborg home games / Kalmar FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Trelleborg play Kalmar FF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 41% of Trelleborg's games and 73% of Kalmar FF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Trelleborg vs Kalmar FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Trelleborg's recent games and 59% of Kalmar FF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Trelleborg and Kalmar FF tend to score early?
Trelleborg have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Kalmar FF in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Trelleborg's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trelleborg and Kalmar FF finished level at 0-0 at Vångavallen, Regular Season - 17, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trelleborg 1.12 xG and Kalmar FF 1.09 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Trelleborg fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Kalmar FF landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trelleborg attack 0.84 / defence 0.82 against Kalmar FF attack 1.02 / defence 0.93, drawn from 46/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trelleborg 35% | Draw 31% | Kalmar FF 34%, with Trelleborg to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trelleborg 41%, Kalmar FF 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Trelleborg's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Kalmar FF's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Trelleborg 1.20 PPG, Kalmar FF 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Trelleborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line. Kalmar FF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.