Trelleborg 0-1 Gefle IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Trelleborg at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Trelleborg vs Gefle IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Gefle IF make the trip to Vångavallen to face Trelleborg in Superettan, Regular Season - 1. The match kicks off on Sunday 2 April 2023 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
Trelleborg's overall Superettan record this term: 4W 0D 6L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Trelleborg at Vångavallen this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trelleborg 1.83 xG and Gefle IF 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trelleborg attack 0.994 / defence 1.064 | Gefle IF attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.601 / away 1.177. Data: 30 Trelleborg games / 0 Gefle IF games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Trelleborg 54% | Draw 25% | Gefle IF 21%. Fair-value odds: Trelleborg 1.85 | Draw 4.00 | Gefle IF 4.76. Trelleborg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Trelleborg at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Trelleborg if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.89 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trelleborg vs Gefle IF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Vångavallen • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Apr 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trelleborg 54% | Draw 25% | Gefle IF 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 56% | xG Trelleborg 1.83 / Gefle IF 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Trelleborg attack 0.994 / def 1.064 | Gefle IF attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.601 / away 1.177 • Poisson stance: Trelleborg (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Trelleborg xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Gefle IF xG
56%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Trelleborg vs Gefle IF kick off?
Trelleborg vs Gefle IF kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 2 April 2023 at Vångavallen.
What was the final score in Trelleborg vs Gefle IF?
Trelleborg 0 - 1 Gefle IF.
Where is Trelleborg vs Gefle IF being played?
The match is being played at Vångavallen.
What competition is Trelleborg vs Gefle IF part of?
Trelleborg vs Gefle IF is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Trelleborg vs Gefle IF?
Our statistical model gives Trelleborg a 54% chance of winning, Gefle IF a 21% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Trelleborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trelleborg vs Gefle IF?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Trelleborg and Gefle IF will score (BTTS).
Will Trelleborg vs Gefle IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Trelleborg and Gefle IF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Trelleborg and Gefle IF in?
Trelleborg (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. Trelleborg home split: 1.60 PPG from 10 | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | CS 0.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Trelleborg's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Gefle IF's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.83. Flip it around — Gefle IF's attack (0.85x) against Trelleborg's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 30/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Trelleborg Win
54%
1.84
25%
4.05
21%
4.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Trelleborg xG
Total xG
2.89
1.06
Gefle IF xG
1.84
54%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
4.77
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
35%
2.90
16%
6.23
Win to Nil
19%
5.33
3%
29.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 10.8 | 5.7 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 6.0 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Trelleborg vs Gefle IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Trelleborg and Gefle IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Trelleborg and 1.06 for Gefle IF, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Trelleborg vs Gefle IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trelleborg
Pre-Season
Gefle IF
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since April 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 October 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Trelleborg have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Gefle IF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Trelleborg
2
Draws
1
Gefle IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Trelleborg and Gefle IF?
From 4 meetings on record, Trelleborg have won 1, Gefle IF have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Trelleborg and Gefle IF last play each other?
They last met on 26 October 2024, when Trelleborg 1-0 Gefle IF.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trelleborg home games / Gefle IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Gefle IF defy the odds to beat Trelleborg 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gefle IF beat Trelleborg 0-1 at Vångavallen, Regular Season - 1, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trelleborg 1.83 xG and Gefle IF 1.06 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Trelleborg fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trelleborg attack 0.99 / defence 1.06 against Gefle IF attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 30/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trelleborg 54% | Draw 25% | Gefle IF 21%, with Trelleborg to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Gefle IF win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.