Osters IF 0-1 Trelleborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Osters IF at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Osters IF vs Trelleborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Osters IF host Trelleborg at Visma Arena in Superettan, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 5 November 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Osters IF — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W D W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Osters IF's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at Visma Arena this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Trelleborg stand at 4W 0D 6L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Trelleborg away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Osters IF are in the better shape of the two on current Superettan data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.20). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Osters IF have won 1, Trelleborg 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.3 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 22 May 2022, ended 2–1 with Osters IF winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Osters IF trading profile (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Trelleborg trading profile (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Osters IF 54% and Trelleborg 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Osters IF 42% | Trelleborg 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osters IF 2.12 xG and Trelleborg 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osters IF attack 1.157 / defence 0.973 | Trelleborg attack 1.026 / defence 1.253. League average goals — home 1.459 / away 1.273. Trelleborg bring a strong defensive rating of 1.253 — this is suppressing Osters IF's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 59 Osters IF games / 59 Trelleborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Osters IF 56% | Draw 23% | Trelleborg 21%. Fair-value odds: Osters IF 1.79 | Draw 4.35 | Trelleborg 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Osters IF (56%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.39. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.39 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (2.12 / 1.27) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Osters IF as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.39 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Osters IF 70% | Trelleborg 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osters IF vs Trelleborg | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Visma Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Nov 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osters IF 56% | Draw 23% | Trelleborg 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 64% | xG Osters IF 2.12 / Trelleborg 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Osters IF attack 1.157 / def 0.973 | Trelleborg attack 1.026 / def 1.253 | league avg home 1.459 / away 1.273 • Poisson stance: Osters IF (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.12
Osters IF xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Trelleborg xG
64%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Osters IF vs Trelleborg kick off?
Osters IF vs Trelleborg kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 5 November 2022 at Visma Arena.
What was the final score in Osters IF vs Trelleborg?
Osters IF 0 - 1 Trelleborg.
Where is Osters IF vs Trelleborg being played?
The match is being played at Visma Arena.
What competition is Osters IF vs Trelleborg part of?
Osters IF vs Trelleborg is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Osters IF vs Trelleborg?
Our statistical model gives Osters IF a 56% chance of winning, Trelleborg a 21% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Osters IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Osters IF vs Trelleborg?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Osters IF and Trelleborg will score (BTTS).
Will Osters IF vs Trelleborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Osters IF and Trelleborg?
Record (3 meetings): Osters IF 1W | Draws 1 | Trelleborg 1W.
What form are Osters IF and Trelleborg in?
Osters IF (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-D-L. Trelleborg (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Osters IF's attack at 1.16x the league average against Trelleborg's defence at 1.25x — combine the two and it projects 2.12 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Trelleborg's attack versus Osters IF's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Osters IF Win
56%
1.80
23%
4.34
21%
4.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.1%
Draw
2 – 0
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.12
Osters IF xG
Total xG
3.39
1.27
Trelleborg xG
1.80
56%
Home win
4.34
23%
Draw
4.69
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.55
36%
BTTS No
2.81
Clean Sheet
28%
3.56
12%
8.30
Win to Nil
16%
6.41
3%
38.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 9.1 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.6 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 6.8 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Osters IF vs Trelleborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are Osters IF and Trelleborg expected to score?
The model projects 2.12 expected goals for Osters IF and 1.27 for Trelleborg, a combined total of 3.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Osters IF vs Trelleborg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 59 outings, Osters IF have picked up 1.59 PPG on a 25W 19D 15L record — W-D-W-D-L across the most recent five.
Trelleborg's form line: 23W 16D 20L from 59 games, 1.44 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Osters IF on 1.59 PPG, Trelleborg on 1.44. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Osters IF have posted 1.86 PPG from 29 outings (15W 9D 5L).
On the road, Trelleborg have gone 8W 10D 11L from 29 away games — 1.17 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Osters IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Osters IF are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Trelleborg are on 1.47 scored and 1.49 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Trelleborg in 68%.
Last 59 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osters IF
Current Season
Trelleborg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Osters IF and Trelleborg in coming into this match?
Osters IF have gone 25W 19D 15L in their last 59 games (1.59 PPG), while Trelleborg have gone 23W 16D 20L in their last 59 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Osters IF at home or Trelleborg away?
Osters IF's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Osters IF at home: 1.86 PPG; Trelleborg away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Osters IF or Trelleborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Osters IF have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Trelleborg in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 September 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Osters IF go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Apr 2023, when Osters IF won 5-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Osters IF's record when hosting Trelleborg specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Osters IF
1
Draws
2
Trelleborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Osters IF and Trelleborg?
From 8 meetings on record, Osters IF have won 5, Trelleborg have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Osters IF and Trelleborg last play each other?
They last met on 18 September 2024, when Osters IF 4-1 Trelleborg.
Who has won more matches between Osters IF and Trelleborg?
Osters IF have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Osters IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Trelleborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Osters IF 59%, Trelleborg 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Osters IF) and 55% (Trelleborg).
On the defensive side: Osters IF keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osters IF home games / Trelleborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Osters IF play Trelleborg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Osters IF's games and 69% of Trelleborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Osters IF vs Trelleborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Osters IF's recent games and 55% of Trelleborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Osters IF and Trelleborg tend to score early?
Osters IF have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Trelleborg in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Trelleborg defy the odds to beat Osters IF 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trelleborg beat Osters IF 0-1 at Visma Arena, Regular Season - 30, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Osters IF 2.12 xG and Trelleborg 1.27 xG, a combined 3.39. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Osters IF fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osters IF attack 1.16 / defence 0.97 against Trelleborg attack 1.03 / defence 1.25, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Osters IF 56% | Draw 23% | Trelleborg 21%, with Osters IF to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Trelleborg win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osters IF 42%, Trelleborg 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Osters IF's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Trelleborg's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Osters IF 1.59 PPG, Trelleborg 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Trelleborg win broke the near-deadlock. Osters IF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.52 scoring average — below par going forward. Trelleborg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.72 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.