Trelleborg 4-2 Dalkurd FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Trelleborg at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Trelleborg vs Dalkurd FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Trelleborg host Dalkurd FF at Vångavallen in Superettan, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 21 August 2022 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Trelleborg stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Trelleborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Vångavallen, Trelleborg have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Superettan games this season, Dalkurd FF have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Dalkurd FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dalkurd FF's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, Trelleborg have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Trelleborg, 1 for Dalkurd FF and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Apr 2022, ended 0–2 with Dalkurd FF winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Trelleborg trading profile (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Dalkurd FF trading profile (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Trelleborg 71% versus Dalkurd FF 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trelleborg 67% | Dalkurd FF 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trelleborg 1.63 xG and Dalkurd FF 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trelleborg attack 0.989 / defence 1.087 | Dalkurd FF attack 0.609 / defence 1.208. League average goals — home 1.367 / away 1.352. Dalkurd FF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.208 — this is suppressing Trelleborg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 49 Trelleborg games / 19 Dalkurd FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Trelleborg 53% | Draw 27% | Dalkurd FF 19%. Fair-value odds: Trelleborg 1.89 | Draw 3.70 | Dalkurd FF 5.26. Trelleborg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Trelleborg are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Trelleborg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.53 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: Trelleborg 70% | Dalkurd FF 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trelleborg vs Dalkurd FF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Vångavallen • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Aug 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trelleborg 53% | Draw 27% | Dalkurd FF 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 49% | xG Trelleborg 1.63 / Dalkurd FF 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Trelleborg attack 0.989 / def 1.087 | Dalkurd FF attack 0.609 / def 1.208 | league avg home 1.367 / away 1.352 • Poisson stance: Trelleborg (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Trelleborg xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Dalkurd FF xG
49%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Trelleborg vs Dalkurd FF kick off?
Trelleborg vs Dalkurd FF kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 21 August 2022 at Vångavallen.
What was the final score in Trelleborg vs Dalkurd FF?
Trelleborg 4 - 2 Dalkurd FF.
Where is Trelleborg vs Dalkurd FF being played?
The match is being played at Vångavallen.
What competition is Trelleborg vs Dalkurd FF part of?
Trelleborg vs Dalkurd FF is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Trelleborg vs Dalkurd FF?
Our statistical model gives Trelleborg a 53% chance of winning, Dalkurd FF a 19% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Trelleborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trelleborg vs Dalkurd FF?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Trelleborg and Dalkurd FF will score (BTTS).
Will Trelleborg vs Dalkurd FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Trelleborg and Dalkurd FF?
Record (1 meetings): Trelleborg 0W | Draws 0 | Dalkurd FF 1W.
What form are Trelleborg and Dalkurd FF in?
Trelleborg (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-L-D-D. Dalkurd FF (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Trelleborg's attack rating (0.99) and Dalkurd FF's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 1.63 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Dalkurd FF's attack versus Trelleborg's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.5%), 2-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Trelleborg Win
53%
1.87
27%
3.67
19%
5.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Trelleborg xG
Total xG
2.53
0.90
Dalkurd FF xG
1.87
53%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
5.18
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
20%
5.11
Win to Nil
22%
4.58
4%
26.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 7.2 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.0 | 11.7 | 5.2 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.5 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Trelleborg vs Dalkurd FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Trelleborg and Dalkurd FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Trelleborg and 0.90 for Dalkurd FF, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Trelleborg vs Dalkurd FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Trelleborg's recent record stands at 8W 7D 6L from 21 games, a 1.48 PPG return, with W-W-L-D-D in the last five. The sample for Trelleborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dalkurd FF, meanwhile, have gone 6W 4D 11L across 21 games — 1.05 PPG, with W-D-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Dalkurd FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Trelleborg by 0.43 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Dalkurd FF heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Trelleborg have managed 4W 3D 3L from 10 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dalkurd FF's away record stands at 1W 4D 5L across 10 trips, a 0.70 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Trelleborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Trelleborg are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Dalkurd FF are on 0.95 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Trelleborg have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Last 21 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trelleborg
Blended
Dalkurd FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Trelleborg and Dalkurd FF in coming into this match?
Trelleborg have gone 8W 7D 6L in their last 21 games (1.48 PPG), while Dalkurd FF have gone 6W 4D 11L in their last 21 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trelleborg at home or Dalkurd FF away?
Trelleborg's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trelleborg at home: 1.50 PPG; Dalkurd FF away: 0.70 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 August 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Trelleborg
0
Draws
1
Dalkurd FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Trelleborg and Dalkurd FF?
From 2 meetings on record, Trelleborg have won 1, Dalkurd FF have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Trelleborg and Dalkurd FF last play each other?
They last met on 21 August 2022, when Trelleborg 4-2 Dalkurd FF.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Trelleborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Dalkurd FF see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Trelleborg 70%, Dalkurd FF 30% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 70% (Trelleborg) and 40% (Dalkurd FF). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dalkurd FF in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trelleborg home games / Dalkurd FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Trelleborg play Dalkurd FF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 70% of Trelleborg's recent matches and 30% of Dalkurd FF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Trelleborg vs Dalkurd FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Trelleborg's matches and 40% of Dalkurd FF's.
Do Trelleborg and Dalkurd FF tend to score early?
Trelleborg have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Dalkurd FF in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Trelleborg cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Dalkurd FF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trelleborg beat Dalkurd FF 4-2 at Vångavallen, Regular Season - 20, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trelleborg 1.63 xG and Dalkurd FF 0.90 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Trelleborg beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Dalkurd FF outscored their 0.90 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trelleborg attack 0.99 / defence 1.09 against Dalkurd FF attack 0.61 / defence 1.21, drawn from 49/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trelleborg 53% | Draw 27% | Dalkurd FF 19%, with Trelleborg to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trelleborg 67%, Dalkurd FF 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Trelleborg's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Dalkurd FF's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Trelleborg arrived the stronger side — 1.48 PPG against 1.05. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Trelleborg (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm. Dalkurd FF (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.60 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.