Stockholm Internazionale 0-1 GIF Sundsvall – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates GIF Sundsvall at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stockholm Internazionale vs GIF Sundsvall fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Stockholm Internazionale and GIF Sundsvall meet at Hammarby IP in Superettan, Relegation Round. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 21 November 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
GIF Sundsvall's overall Superettan record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, GIF Sundsvall have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stockholm Internazionale 1.18 xG and GIF Sundsvall 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stockholm Internazionale attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.881 / defence 0.964. League average goals — home 1.439 / away 1.194. Data: 0 Stockholm Internazionale games / 60 GIF Sundsvall games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stockholm Internazionale 34% | Draw 30% | GIF Sundsvall 36%. Fair-value odds: Stockholm Internazionale 2.94 | Draw 3.33 | GIF Sundsvall 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates GIF Sundsvall as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on GIF Sundsvall if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.39 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stockholm Internazionale vs GIF Sundsvall | Competition: Superettan, Relegation Round | Venue: Hammarby IP • Kick-off: Thursday 21 Nov 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stockholm Internazionale 34% | Draw 30% | GIF Sundsvall 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 50% | xG Stockholm Internazionale 1.18 / GIF Sundsvall 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Stockholm Internazionale attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.881 / def 0.964 | league avg home 1.439 / away 1.194 • Poisson stance: GIF Sundsvall (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Stockholm Internazionale xG
Expected Goals
1.21
GIF Sundsvall xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stockholm Internazionale vs GIF Sundsvall kick off?
Stockholm Internazionale vs GIF Sundsvall kicked off at 18:00 on Thursday 21 November 2024 at Hammarby IP.
What was the final score in Stockholm Internazionale vs GIF Sundsvall?
Stockholm Internazionale 0 - 1 GIF Sundsvall.
Where is Stockholm Internazionale vs GIF Sundsvall being played?
The match is being played at Hammarby IP.
What competition is Stockholm Internazionale vs GIF Sundsvall part of?
Stockholm Internazionale vs GIF Sundsvall is a Relegation Round fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Stockholm Internazionale vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our statistical model gives Stockholm Internazionale a 34% chance of winning, GIF Sundsvall a 36% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making GIF Sundsvall the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stockholm Internazionale vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Stockholm Internazionale and GIF Sundsvall will score (BTTS).
Will Stockholm Internazionale vs GIF Sundsvall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stockholm Internazionale and GIF Sundsvall?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Stockholm Internazionale and GIF Sundsvall in?
GIF Sundsvall (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-L-D-W-W. GIF Sundsvall away split: 1.20 PPG from 10 | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | CS 3.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Stockholm Internazionale's attack at 0.85x the league average against GIF Sundsvall's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.18 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — GIF Sundsvall's attack (0.88x) against Stockholm Internazionale's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from 0/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 0-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
GIF Sundsvall Win
34%
2.92
30%
3.32
36%
2.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Stockholm Internazionale xG
Total xG
2.39
1.21
GIF Sundsvall xG
2.92
34%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
2.80
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
30%
3.35
31%
3.25
Win to Nil
10%
9.80
11%
9.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 11.1 | 6.7 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 13.1 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 7.7 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stockholm Internazionale vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Stockholm Internazionale and GIF Sundsvall expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Stockholm Internazionale and 1.21 for GIF Sundsvall, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Stockholm Internazionale vs GIF Sundsvall?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stockholm Internazionale
Pre-Season
GIF Sundsvall
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since November 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 November 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Stockholm Internazionale
0
Draws
2
GIF Sundsvall
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stockholm Internazionale and GIF Sundsvall?
From 2 meetings on record, Stockholm Internazionale have won 0, GIF Sundsvall have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Stockholm Internazionale and GIF Sundsvall last play each other?
They last met on 24 November 2024, when GIF Sundsvall 3-2 Stockholm Internazionale.
Who has won more matches between Stockholm Internazionale and GIF Sundsvall?
GIF Sundsvall have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stockholm Internazionale home games / GIF Sundsvall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as GIF Sundsvall edge out Stockholm Internazionale 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
GIF Sundsvall beat Stockholm Internazionale 0-1 at Hammarby IP, Relegation Round, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stockholm Internazionale 1.18 xG and GIF Sundsvall 1.21 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Stockholm Internazionale fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stockholm Internazionale attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against GIF Sundsvall attack 0.88 / defence 0.96, drawn from 0/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stockholm Internazionale 34% | Draw 30% | GIF Sundsvall 36%, with GIF Sundsvall to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.