Stockholm Internazionale 0-1 GIF Sundsvall – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates GIF Sundsvall at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stockholm Internazionale vs GIF Sundsvall fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Stockholm Internazionale and GIF Sundsvall meet at Hammarby IP in Superettan, Relegation Round. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 21 November 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
GIF Sundsvall's overall Superettan record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, GIF Sundsvall have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stockholm Internazionale 1.18 xG and GIF Sundsvall 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stockholm Internazionale attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.881 / defence 0.964. League average goals — home 1.439 / away 1.194. Data: 0 Stockholm Internazionale games / 60 GIF Sundsvall games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stockholm Internazionale 34% | Draw 30% | GIF Sundsvall 36%. Fair-value odds: Stockholm Internazionale 2.94 | Draw 3.33 | GIF Sundsvall 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates GIF Sundsvall as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on GIF Sundsvall if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.39 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stockholm Internazionale vs GIF Sundsvall | Competition: Superettan, Relegation Round | Venue: Hammarby IP • Kick-off: Thursday 21 Nov 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stockholm Internazionale 34% | Draw 30% | GIF Sundsvall 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 50% | xG Stockholm Internazionale 1.18 / GIF Sundsvall 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Stockholm Internazionale attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.881 / def 0.964 | league avg home 1.439 / away 1.194 • Poisson stance: GIF Sundsvall (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Stockholm Internazionale xG
Expected Goals
1.21
GIF Sundsvall xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
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❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stockholm Internazionale vs GIF Sundsvall kick off?
Stockholm Internazionale vs GIF Sundsvall kicked off at 18:00 on Thursday 21 November 2024 at Hammarby IP.
What was the final score in Stockholm Internazionale vs GIF Sundsvall?
Stockholm Internazionale 0 - 1 GIF Sundsvall.
Where is Stockholm Internazionale vs GIF Sundsvall being played?
The match is being played at Hammarby IP.
What competition is Stockholm Internazionale vs GIF Sundsvall part of?
Stockholm Internazionale vs GIF Sundsvall is a Relegation Round fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Stockholm Internazionale vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our statistical model gives Stockholm Internazionale a 34% chance of winning, GIF Sundsvall a 36% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making GIF Sundsvall the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stockholm Internazionale vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Stockholm Internazionale and GIF Sundsvall will score (BTTS).
Will Stockholm Internazionale vs GIF Sundsvall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stockholm Internazionale and GIF Sundsvall?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Stockholm Internazionale and GIF Sundsvall in?
GIF Sundsvall (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-L-D-W-W. GIF Sundsvall away split: 1.20 PPG from 10 | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | CS 3.
What do the betting odds say about Stockholm Internazionale vs GIF Sundsvall?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.